Panic set in as BTC broke below the STH-RP ($108,000) level. On-chain, the realized loss (entity-adjusted) spiked to $107 million (see Chart 1). While this isn’t as high as the $126 million seen on Aug 26, it’s still significantly above the levels on Aug 25, 27, and 28. So, it’s too early to say market sentiment is easing. (Chart 1) Looking at realized losses sent to exchanges, there was a clear surge around 5AM (UTC+8) on Aug 30 (see Chart 2). This coincided precisely with BTC dropping below $108,000—the average cost basis for short-term holders—triggering some investor panic. (Chart 2) At the same time, among the four major exchanges—Binance, OKX, Bybit, and Coinbase—only Coinbase saw a massive BTC inflow. In just one hour (5-6AM), 7,244 BTC were deposited onto the platform (see Chart 3). (Chart 3) We’ve analyzed this before: when STH-RP is breached, short-term sentiment quickly shifts from anxiety to outright panic. The current on-chain data is starting to reflect this, and with the weekend ahead (typically low liquidity), volatility could spike even further. Of course, for those bullish on BTC’s long-term trend, the dip hasn’t stopped them from accumulating. (Chart 4) Notably, Kraken’s BTC balance dropped by 41,512 BTC between Aug 27-29. Previous tracing shows Kraken addresses are closely linked to treasury firms, traditional institutions, and OTC desks. This could signal a large-scale withdrawal by market makers for institutional OTC settlements. There’s always a game of fear and greed in the market—some panic sell, others keep stacking. For retail traders, my one piece of advice: don’t overthink it. Allocate your spot positions wisely, plan your trades ahead, and remember—when the market is in max fear, that’s when opportunity knocks. 👇 👇 ‼️ Sharing for educational purposes only—NOT investment advice ‼️ ------------------------------------------------- Post sponsored by #Bitget | @Bitget_zh