Previously, we mentioned that BTC has been hovering around the STH-RP level for 7 days since the 26th. This is due to a combination of factors: market liquidity, the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, and shifting macro sentiment. But BTC obviously can’t stay stuck at this sensitive level forever. Historically, from an on-chain perspective, similar situations tend to resolve within 10-20 days (see Chart 1)—either with a strong rebound or even a reversal, or with a prolonged downtrend or accelerated correction. (Chart 1) When emotions are compressed to the extreme, we often see some minor bounces during this period. The key is whether BTC can break through the nearest resistance level. Right now, the average cost basis for short-term holders (<1 month and <3 months) has converged (see Chart 2), creating a double resistance zone at $112,700. (Chart 2) Short-term investors are more easily swayed by market sentiment compared to long-term holders. When their unrealized losses turn back to breakeven, they're more likely to add sell pressure to the market. That's why $112,700–$113,400 is the most critical level for any rebound. If BTC fails to break through, it’s likely to retest the STH-RP support. On the flip side, a smooth breakout would signal that these trapped holders still have confidence in the future and aren’t in a rush to sell. That would give us more reasons to be optimistic. 👇 👇 ‼️ This is for educational sharing only and not financial advice. ‼️ ------------------------------------------------- This post is sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh