A Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg has identified what may be contributing to the ongoing Bitcoin downtrend.
For context, Bitcoin slipped into bearish territory after reaching the September peak near $118,000 shortly after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The leading crypto asset has lost more than 5% since then and now trades at $111,704.
Amid this downtrend, Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, recently explained what has fueled the pressure on Bitcoin. He also highlighted that the $100,000 support could decide how capital moves in and out of the market during the final quarter of this year.
Notably, gold has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of this trend. The precious metal claimed a new all-time high near $3,800 per ounce earlier this week. Investors appear to be buying gold as protection, while equity volatility indicates unusual calm.
This matches a familiar pattern where a one-sided growth in the market triggers the movement of funds into safe-haven assets. Gold’s sharp push suggests many institutions have already taken that step.
By contrast, Bitcoin has moved in the opposite direction. Instead of climbing with gold, the crypto asset has lost momentum throughout September. The divergence shows how investors increasingly treat Bitcoin as a risk-on asset.
Unlike gold, which acts as a hedge, Bitcoin tends to behave like a high-beta stock. It usually rallies when traders chase risk and weakens when they shift toward protection. This explains why Bitcoin has slipped from its September peak while gold pushed to new highs.
Crucial Bitcoin Support to Watch
Meanwhile, McGlone pointed to $100,000 as the level that could guide Bitcoin’s price action in the fourth quarter. Amid the persistent declines, this psychological mark now serves as a very important line of support.
When he made his analysis, Bitcoin traded near $113,000. Since then, it has dropped further to $111,704. If the market pushes the price toward $100,000, investors will watch to see whether buyers defend that level. A strong rebound could restore momentum, but a break lower could lead to deeper losses.
Historical context supports this report. Notably, in early 2020, S&P volatility also sat at extreme lows. It later exploded above 60 as Bitcoin recovered. Today’s reading of just under 9% aligns with the earlier levels during the pandemic.
Such extremes rarely last, and gold’s surge alongside Bitcoin’s current struggle indicates that investors may already be preparing for change. If Bitcoin holds the $100,000 support, a surge could follow into Q4 2025, similar to the post-pandemic rally.
