Bitcoin has entered the final quarter of 2025 with conditions that suggest a price rally may be underway, according to onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant. The firm said bitcoin could reach a price range of $160,000 to $200,000 by year's end if demand continues to expand.
Spot demand for bitcoin has been rising since July, with apparent demand increasing at a monthly pace of more than 62,000 BTC, CryptoQuant said. The firm noted that this kind of sustained demand preceded previous fourth-quarter rallies in 2020, 2021, and 2024 (red circles).
Whale and ETF demand are also showing strength. Whale holdings are expanding at an annual rate of 331,000 BTC, compared with 255,000 in Q4 2024, over 238,000 at the start of Q4 2020, and a contraction of 197,000 in 2021, CryptoQuant said. U.S.-listed ETFs, on the other hand, purchased 213,000 BTC in Q4 2024, a 71% increase from the prior quarter, and could post similar growth this quarter, Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, told The Block.
From a price perspective, bitcoin needed to break above the "trader's on-chain realized price" of $116,000 to shift back into the "bull" phase of its cycle, according to CryptoQuant. With the threshold now cleared and bitcoin trading around $117,300, the firm sees a potential range of $160,000–$200,000 for the quarter.
CryptoQuant’s "bitcoin bull score index" stood at 40–50 in the final days of the third quarter, the same levels seen at the end of Q3 2024 before bitcoin rallied from $70,000 to $100,000.
"These levels represent the threshold before conditions turn to bullish according to the index," CryptoQuant said. The index has recently been supported by growing bitcoin demand, expanding stablecoin liquidity, and lower unrealized trader gains, which point to reduced selling pressure, the firm said.
Other firms and executives forecasting bitcoin at $200,000 by year-end include Standard Chartered Bank, Bitwise, and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee. Standard Chartered projects that bitcoin could reach $500,000 by 2028, driven by expanding investor access and declining volatility.
