25Q4 Bitcoin Valuation Report

This report, authored by Tiger Research, sets a Bitcoin price target of $200,000 for Q4 2025. Despite volatility, institutional buying continues, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, and the October selloff demonstrates that institutions now dominate the market.

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Key Takeaways

• Institutional buying continues despite surge in volatility - ETF net inflows remain high in Q3, and MSTR confirms long-term investment commitment with additional purchases of 388 BTC in October alone.

• Signs of overheating but a healthy correction phase - MVRV-Z is not overvalued at 2.31, and leverage liquidation has quenched short-term trading demand, securing further upside potential.

• The global liquidity environment is favorable: M2 money supply surpasses $96 trillion, reaching a historic high. The Fed cut interest rates, with one or two more cuts expected this year.

Institutional buying remains robust despite uncertainty surrounding the US-China conflict.

In Q3 2025, the Bitcoin market exhibited a sideways trend amid increased volatility (+1% QoQ), as the strong upward momentum of Q2 (+28% QoQ) slowed. It reached a record high of $126,210 on October 6th, but then fell 18% to $104,000 due to the Trump administration's renewed trade pressure, demonstrating strong volatility. According to Volmex Finance 's Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVIV) , volatility decreased from March to September due to continued accumulation by institutional investors. However, a 41% surge since September has exacerbated market uncertainty (Figure 1).

However, this adjustment is seen as a temporary phenomenon due to the resurgence of the US-China trade conflict and President Trump's hardline rhetoric. Strategic accumulation by institutional investors, led by Strategy Inc. (MSTR), is actually accelerating. The macroeconomic environment is also favorable. The global M2 money supply has surpassed $96 trillion, reaching a historic high. On September 17th, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the benchmark rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25%. With the Fed hinting at one or two more rate cuts this year, the combination of a stable labor market and economic recovery is creating a favorable environment for risky assets.

Institutional fund inflows remained robust. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $7.8 billion in the third quarter. Although this was a decrease from the $12.4 billion in the second quarter, the sustained net inflow throughout the third quarter demonstrates the steady buying power of institutions. This momentum continued into the fourth quarter, with $3.2 billion inflows in the first week of October alone, the largest weekly inflow in 2025. This demonstrates the sophisticated investment behavior of institutions that utilize price corrections as strategic buying opportunities. Despite the market correction, MSTR acquired an additional 220 BTC on October 13th and 168 BTC on October 20th, for a total of 388 BTC over a one-week period. This demonstrates the unwavering commitment of institutions to long-term value, regardless of short-term volatility.

On-chain indicators show signs of overheating, while fundamentals show sideways movement.

Analysis of on-chain indicators reveals signs of overheating, but not a worrisome level of overvaluation. The MVRV-Z indicator (the ratio of market value to realized value) is at 2.31, indicating overheating, but has stabilized compared to July and August, when it approached extreme overvaluation (Figure 2).

The net unrealized profit/loss ratio (NUPL) is also showing signs of overheating, but it is less pronounced than the high unrealized gains seen in the second quarter (Figure 3). The adjusted SOPR (adjusted operating profit/loss ratio), which reflects investors' realized profits/losses, is 1.03, very close to the equilibrium level and therefore not a cause for concern (Figure 4).

Bitcoin's transaction count and number of active users remained similar to the previous quarter, indicating a temporary slowdown in the network's growth momentum (Figure 5). Conversely, total transaction volume has turned upward. The decrease in transaction counts, coupled with the increase in transaction volume, indicates that larger amounts are being transferred in fewer transactions, suggesting an increase in large-scale fund movements.

However, it's difficult to interpret this expansion in trading volume solely positively. The recent influx of funds into centralized exchanges has been increasing, and this is generally interpreted as a signal that holders are preparing to sell (Figure 6). The increase in trading volume without improvements in fundamental indicators (number of transactions, active users) is interpreted as a result of short-term capital movements and selling pressure amid high volatility, rather than an increase in real demand.

The October 10th chain liquidation demonstrates the shift toward an institutional-centric market.

The massive chain liquidations (14% decline) that occurred on centralized exchanges on October 10th was a significant event that confirmed the structural shift in the Bitcoin market from being centered on individual investors to being centered on institutional investors.

The key point is that the market reaction was completely different from past periods. In a similar situation in late 2021, the market, dominated by individual investors, saw widespread fear and an immediate plunge. However, this time, the correction was limited. Even immediately after the chain liquidation, institutions continued to buy, demonstrating their steadfast defense against market downturns. Furthermore, these institutions appear to perceive this as a healthy correction, quelling overheated speculative demand.

In the short term, the average purchase price of short-term individual investors could decline due to chain liquidations, increasing psychological pressure and potentially increasing volatility due to a weakening of investor sentiment. However, if institutional investors continue to enter the market in the current sideways market, this correction is likely to lay the foundation for the next uptrend.

Target raised to $200,000

Using the TVM methodology, our third-quarter analysis results show a neutral reference price of $154,000, up 14% from $135,000 in the second quarter. Applying the -2% fundamental correction factor and the +35% macro correction factor, the target price is revised upward to $200,000.

The fundamental correction factor was lowered to -2% to reflect short-term weakness, including a temporary slowdown in network activity and increased deposits at centralized exchanges. Conversely, the macro correction factor was maintained at 35%. This is because global liquidity expansion and institutional capital inflows continue, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, in particular, are expected to be a strong driver of further upward momentum in the fourth quarter.

While a temporary correction due to signs of overheating may occur in the short term, this appears to be a healthy correction, not a trend or a shift in perception. The continued rise in the reference price demonstrates the steady increase in Bitcoin's intrinsic value, and despite the temporary slowdown in fundamentals, the medium- to long-term bullish outlook remains valid.

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Disclaimer

This Bitcoin valuation methodology (hereinafter referred to as "this methodology") was developed for research purposes and does not constitute investment advice, investment recommendations, or trading recommendations of any kind. The fair price presented in this methodology is merely the result of a theoretical analysis based on objective data, and it does not constitute a recommendation or recommendation for any investment action, including buying, selling, or holding, at any specific point in time. This methodology serves as academic research material, providing market participants with a single perspective on Bitcoin valuation, and should not be used for actual investment decision-making.

This methodology has been meticulously reviewed and developed to ensure that it does not constitute unfair trade practices, such as price manipulation or fraudulent trading, as defined in Article 10 of the Act on the Protection of Virtual Asset Users (hereinafter referred to as the "Act on the Protection of Virtual Asset Users"). All analyses utilized only publicly accessible information, such as on-chain data and officially announced macroeconomic indicators, and did not use any undisclosed material or insider information. Furthermore, we declare that the target price calculations used in this methodology were based on reasonable grounds and were prepared transparently, without any misrepresentation or intentional omission of important information.

The author and distributor comply with the obligation to disclose conflicts of interest stipulated in Article 10, Paragraph 4, Subparagraph 2 of the Virtual Asset User Protection Act in relation to this methodology. If the author holds or plans to trade the virtual asset (Bitcoin) at the time of writing or distributing this methodology, he or she will clearly disclose such conflicts of interest.

The calculation methods used in this methodology, including the base price, fundamental indicators, and macro indicators, are based on what the author believes to be reasonable methodologies. However, they are not absolute truths or the only correct answer. The Bitcoin market is extremely difficult to predict due to its extremely high volatility, 24-hour trading, global market characteristics, and regulatory uncertainty. Therefore, there may be a significant discrepancy between the valuation results presented in this methodology and the actual market price, and such discrepancies may persist for an extended period of time.

This methodology is based on historical data and current information and does not guarantee or predict future performance or profits. There is no guarantee that past patterns or correlations will continue to apply in the future, and the predictive power of this methodology may be significantly reduced or rendered meaningless by various factors, including unexpected market shocks, regulatory changes, technological issues, and macroeconomic changes. In particular, it should be noted that the cryptocurrency market has a shorter history and undergoes frequent structural changes compared to traditional financial markets, which fundamentally limits the reliability of past data and its predictive power.

All investment decisions should be made solely at the investor's own discretion and responsibility, and this methodology should not be used as the sole or primary basis for investment decisions. Investors should carefully consider their financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, investment experience, and other factors when making investment decisions. They should also seek independent financial or investment advice when necessary. The author, distributor, or affiliated institutions of this methodology are not responsible for any direct, indirect, consequential, special, or punitive losses or damages resulting from investment decisions made based on this methodology.

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