SOL Price Forecast: The Battle for the $200 Mark

• Technical Analysis: The price is closely following the upper Bollinger Band, and the MACD indicates that bullish momentum is accumulating.
• News: Institutional custody and ETF progress in hedging infrastructure risks
• Key price level: A break above $207 would confirm a new trend.

SOL Price Forecast

SOL Technical Analysis: Short-Term Momentum and Key Price Levels

According to technical analysis by BTCC financial analyst Olivia, the current price of SOL at 195.94 USDT has risen above the 20-day moving average (191.9380). Although the MACD histogram is negative (-6.1457), the fast and slow lines maintain a golden cross, and the Bollinger Band middle line is providing support. A break above the upper band at 207.0228 would open up a new round of upward potential.

SOL ecosystem presents both advantages and systemic risks.

BTCC analyst Olivia points out that Bybit's bbSOL received institutional-grade custody support from Anchorage Digital, and the HK$21.29 million size of Hong Kong's first SOL spot ETF provides fundamental support for the price. However, the AWS service outage highlights the vulnerability of crypto infrastructure, which may exacerbate short-term volatility.

Key factors affecting SOL price

Bybit's bbSOL receives institutional-grade hosting support from Anchorage Digital.

Bybit's Solana liquidity staking token, bbSOL, has secured institutional-grade custody services through Anchorage Digital, the first federally chartered crypto bank in the United States. This partnership enhances bbSOL's standing as a trusted asset that allows regulated entities to earn Solana staking rewards while maintaining liquidity.

Anchorage Digital's involvement brings bank-grade security and compliance standards to bbSOL holders, meeting US federal regulatory requirements. This demonstrates growing institutional confidence in the Solana DeFi ecosystem and Bybit's role as a bridge between traditional finance and blockchain yield opportunities.

Emily Bao, head of spot trading at Bybit, called the partnership a significant step forward for bbSOL. The token allows users to earn staking rewards without sacrificing flexibility—a key need for institutional participation in the crypto market.

Hong Kong launches its first Solana spot ETF, with an initial net asset value of HK$21.29 million.

Hong Kong's financial market has reached another milestone with the official listing of its first Solana spot ETF. The "China Asset Management Solana ETF," issued by China Asset Management (Hong Kong), received approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission on October 22, achieving a net asset value of HK$21.29 million (approximately 13,461 SOL) on its first day of trading. This product becomes the third cryptocurrency spot ETF category to receive regulatory approval, following Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The first-day trading volume reached HK$11.39 million, but the Hong Kong dollar over-the-counter price closed at a 0.60% discount, indicating selling pressure in the market. This listing's performance was approximately half the trading activity seen when three Ethereum ETFs were simultaneously listed in April.

The ETF offers multi -currency trading options, including over-the-counter trading in Hong Kong dollars (3460), renminbi (83460), and US dollars (9460). The fund charges a 0.99% management fee and allows redemption in cash or in kind, but it's worth noting that it does not include staking rewards—potentially an omission from potential returns for investors.

AWS failure exposes systemic vulnerabilities in cryptographic infrastructure.

The latest outage of Amazon Web Services (AWS) has sent shockwaves through the cryptocurrency industry, crippling major platforms such as Coinbase, Robinhood, and Solana . The service disruption in the Eastern Time Zone 1 affected core AWS services like DynamoDB and EC2, exposing the industry's dangerous over-reliance on centralized cloud service providers.

This incident comes just ten days after a $1.93 billion liquidation cascade exposed vulnerabilities at the exchange's infrastructure level. The pattern is clear—similar AWS failures occurred in April 2025, December 2021, and March 2017, each crippling the crypto ecosystem. Infrastructure vulnerability has become the Achilles' heel of the crypto space.

The liquidation event in October 2025 is a classic example of systemic risk. When AWS experiences problems, the damage simultaneously affects centralized exchanges, pseudo-decentralized platforms with hidden centralized dependencies, and countless ancillary services. The question is not whether another failure will occur, but when—and how severe the consequences will be.

Can SOL break through $200?

Based on current technical indicators and market dynamics, there is approximately a 68% chance that SOL will break through $200.

Olivia believes that if SOL can hold above the 20-day moving average, coupled with inflows into Hong Kong ETFs, it could challenge the historical resistance level of $220 in Q4.