Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week with the bull market at stake as BTC price predictions diverge wildly.
Bitcoin traders are stuck between hope and capitulation as BTC/USD returns to its yearly open level.
Price eyes a key “magnet” in the form of an old CME futures gap left over from April.
The loss of a key trend line ushers in comparisons to historical bear markets, with a support reclaim far off.
Bitcoin is looking more like a “leveraged tech stock” as its gold correlation disappears.
Crypto sentiment sets joint 2025 lows, deep within “extreme fear.”
BTC price roundtrips 2025 gains
Bitcoin fell back to its yearly open level into Sunday’s weekly close, dipping under $93,000, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
Reactions from traders were highly mixed, with plainly bearish prognoses mixing with hopes of a snap market rebound.
$BTC 1M
— Roman (@Roman_Trading) November 16, 2025
It’s cooked.
76k is next. pic.twitter.com/Wm7G1jmAah
“Binance whales have placed big buy orders between $88,500-$92,000 level,” trader BitBull warned in his latest exchange order-book analysis on X.
“I know a lot of people are calling for a local bottom, but $BTC could sweep the $88K-$90K zone.”
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass showed price being held up by a line of bid liquidity overnight, with overall liquidity conditions preparing for the next breakout attempt.
Commenting, crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe saw liquidity forming a key ingredient on future price action.
“Ideally, I want to see a fast move back up on $BTC is what I'd prefer to see,” he told X followers on the day.
“We swept the low over the weekend, which means that I'd want to see a higher low being created here. If that happens, then there's trillions and trillions of short liquidity ready to be taken out.”
Continuing the more hopeful tone, trader Crypto Tony expressed admiration at the rebound on BTC/USD following the local lows.
$BTC / $USD - Update
— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) November 17, 2025
Very nice recovery last night. I was stopped out of my short in profit. Now i am now looking for shorts up at key levels. $106,000 - $108,000 look attrative pic.twitter.com/Tt13cyyPoT
“The next key level for Bitcoin to reclaim is $98,000 as it'll increase the chances of a local bottom,” crypto investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows added.
CME futures gap just out of reach
A major short-term BTC price target for market participants is now tantalizingly close.
The “gap” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market, originally generated in April, lies just below the current local lows.
From around $91,800 to $92,700, the gap has been on the radar ever since BTC/USD began retreating from current all-time highs in mid-October.
The weekly close brought Bitcoin within spitting distance of closing it, but at the time of writing, it remains unfilled.
“There’s a clear CME gap sitting at $91.9K–$92.5K and you already know how this game works,” trader Hardy told X followers in a post on the topic.
“Whales want their orders filled before the next leg. Expect the dip, embrace the volatility and get ready for the bounce once that gap is taken. Textbook move loading.”
Hardy referred to the market’s habit of “filling” futures gaps, which form over weekends and have historically acted as short-term magnets for price. The April gap is something of an anomaly, remaining untouched for over half a year.
“The 92k region also coincides with an unfilled CME gap, increasing the odds of a short-term technical bounce if tested,” trading resource QCP Capital continued in its latest “Asia Color” market update on the day.
“Yet, as seen over the past few weeks, dense overhead supply could limit the strength of any rebound.”
Major trend line breakdown fuels bear-market woes
The CME gap, however, is far from the only key level concerning traders this week.
In a rare divergence, BTC/USD has now given up its 50-week simple moving average (SMA) as support.
The latest weekly candle close left price far below the 50-week SMA, which currently sits at around $102,850.
The phenomenon did not go unnoticed, with X trading account The Swing Trader stressing the unusual nature of the price’s treatment of what is normally a solid support line.
“And this is very important because Bitcoin has never lost the 50-week MA and still been in a bull cycle,” it said in video analysis.
BTC price has only lost the 50-week trend line four times in its history, reinforcing the move as one typically associated with bear markets. No weekly candles have closed below it since March 2023.
“Every single cycle, the 50-week MA holds for four years and then we finally lose it,” The Swing Trader continued, describing Bitcoin as “technically breaking down.”
QCP added that the loss of the trend line “reinforces a medium-term bearish bias,” but added that a bearish trend reversal hinged on even lower supports at $88,000 and $74,500.
“For now, crypto’s bull cycle hangs in the balance. A short-term bounce may come, but the path of least resistance remains lower,” it concluded.
Taking the exponential (EMA) equivalent of the 50-week SMA into account, the situation is arguably even worse.
As noted by trader Jelle, the “cloud” formed by the 50-week SMA and EMA has not failed as support since BTC/USD traded at $22,000.
“Trend officially lost,” he summarized.
#Bitcoin is back below the 50-week MA/EMA cluster- for the first time since prices were at $22,000.
— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) November 17, 2025
Trend officially lost. pic.twitter.com/pt93ykp8Lg
Crypto diverges from risk-asset trend
On macro, commentary turned to crypto’s unusual behavior compared to the broader risk-asset environment.
Amid talk of Japan enacting giant economic stimulus as part of an overall worldwide liquidity boost, stocks futures were “completely unfazed” by the weekend crypto drop, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted.
“Even as crypto has lost -$100 billion since Friday, US stock market futures are GREEN. Meanwhile, gold just opened above $4,100/oz and yields are on the rise,” it wrote in an X post.
The latest action continues a status quo already in place — crypto, unlike stocks, failed to celebrate the reopening of the US government last week.
Kobeissi’s data showed the paradoxical impact of what should be good news on crypto market performance throughout October and November.
“The isolated nature of the -25% crypto downturn further supports our view: This is a leverage and liquidation-based crypto ‘bear market,’ it continued, describing Bitcoin as trading like a "leveraged tech stock.”
“A bottom forms when market structure is re-established.”
With the correlation between Bitcoin and gold “essentially zero,” analysis of large-cap tech stocks instead holds the key to understanding crypto volatility.
“Bitcoin’s correlation to US technology stocks has rarely been higher: The 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 Index hit ~0.80, the highest since 2022,” Kobeissi observed.
“This is also the 2nd-highest reading over the last 10 years. Correlation has remained positive over the last 5 years, except for brief periods in 2023.”
The week’s macroeconomic data releases, meanwhile, focus on employment data — readings conspicuously absent throughout the US government shutdown.
In part thanks to this lack of data, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that markets are now unconvinced that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 0.25% at its next meeting on Dec. 10.
Extreme fear in the driving seat
In a sign of just how little the average trader believes in a crypto market comeback, sentiment toward both Bitcoin and altcoins has collapsed.
Related: Saylor denies Bitcoin sell-off, XRP ETF debut tops chart: Hodler’s Digest, Nov. 9 – 15
The latest figures from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index confirms that the mood is now lower than at any point since late February.
Then, as now, the Index set a 2025 low of just 10/100 — deep within its “extreme fear” bracket. By contrast, just six weeks ago, it measured 74/100, on the cusp of “extreme greed.”
Commenting, trader Daan Crypto Trades likened the atmosphere to the implosion of crypto exchange FTX in 2022, toward the end of the last crypto bear market.
“This metric is in no way actionable. It can sit at greed for months while markets keep rallying, just as it can sit at the fear levels for a prolonged period of time,” he acknowledged on X.
“But it is still interesting to see how quickly things can change around from greed to fear and the other way around. Especially in crypto, things can turn really fast as we all know.”
Last week, Cointelegraph reported on how crowd sentiment can provide insights into crypto market reversals.
Now, research platform Santiment eyes a return to interest in Bitcoin as a potential bull signal in the making.
“Though not a guaranteed crypto bottom signal, probabilities of a market reversal greatly increases when social dominance for Bitcoin surges,” it wrote on X Sunday alongside proprietary data.
“During Friday's dip below $95K, discussion rates hit a 4-month high, signaling severe retail panic & FUD.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
