Institutional Outlook for the US September Non-Farm Payrolls Report: The weak job market may continue, but a collapse is premature.

Mars Finance reports that the first non-farm payroll report since the shutdown will be released tonight, November 20th. Here are the opinions from various institutions: Rockefeller: Expects a 50,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September, indicating a stable job market, while previously released labor market data showed a clear weakness; Indeed Hiring Lab: Does not anticipate significant changes in the September non-farm payroll report compared to previous reports, and believes the current weakness in the labor market will continue; Pansen Macro: Any data that appears unsatisfactory at present could have a lasting impact due to the six-week data vacuum, potentially amplifying the negative impact of the non-farm payroll data; Reuters survey: Expects a 50,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September. Economists believe the August data was suppressed by seasonal anomalies and may be revised upwards based on past trends; Loyola Marymount University: The labor market is clearly slowing, and the general expectation is that this trend will continue. The labor market will hover at the bottom for some time but will not fall into recession; Nationwide: Expects a 4-5 increase in non-farm payrolls in September. The figure of 55,000 new jobs in September will further confirm that the summer weakness in the job market has continued into the fall, with companies maintaining a "neither hiring nor laying off" attitude. Credit Agricole expects non-farm payrolls to increase by 55,000 in September, with the unemployment rate at 4.3%. The labor market appears to be cooling, but it has not collapsed, remaining in a state of "low hiring, low layoffs." Standard Chartered Bank expects non-farm payroll data for September-November to be "very weak," with seasonal hiring likely to be very weak and layoffs unusually high, which should be enough to persuade Fed centrists to lean towards a rate cut. Goldman Sachs expects non-farm payrolls to increase by 80,000 in September, with the unemployment rate at 4.3%. The risk lies in the unreleased October data, which is expected to show a decrease of 50,000 jobs. Union Bank expects non-farm payrolls to increase by about 40,000 in September, and the market reaction may be smaller than usual, as more information about the job market can already be obtained from data released by private institutions. Consulting firm RSM expects September data, along with July and August data, to be weak. The revised figures for September will show a slightly better-than-expected employment outlook, but this is far from cause for celebration, as the labor market continues to struggle, as does the overall U.S. economy. (Note: Market consensus expects U.S. nonfarm payrolls to increase by 50,000 in September, with the unemployment rate at 4.3%.) (Jinshi)