Capital Economics: The Fed's December vote may see its first-ever 6-6 tie.

Mars Finance reported on November 24th that analysts at Capital Economics stated that the Federal Reserve, which is typically consensus-driven, has recently shown increasingly serious divisions, to the point that next month's interest rate meeting "may end in a stalemate." In a report last Friday, Capital Economics economists attempted to calculate the voting results. Four regional Fed presidents on the committee—Collins, Goolsby, Musslump, and Schmid—expressed skepticism, even "outright opposition," to the proposal for a rate cut next month. Fed Governors Barr and Jefferson also signaled caution. On the dovish side, three Trump-appointed Fed governors—Bowman, Milan, and Waller—have been calling for a rate cut, and Williams' remarks last Friday sounded like he might join their ranks. Capital Economics stated, "This means there are still only four votes in favor of a rate cut and six against. However, given that Williams and Fed Chair Powell often share similar views (and Governor Lisa Cook usually votes in line with Powell), a six-to-six tie is possible." Robert Eisenbeis, former head of research at the Atlanta Fed, told Fortune magazine earlier this year that if a tie occurs, the federal funds rate will remain unchanged.