On November 24th, Chloe, a columnist for HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, pointed out that the US market this week is characterized by a "data-heavy release" ahead of the holidays, with multiple core economic indicators to be released from Monday to Wednesday. High-frequency employment data (especially initial jobless claims on Wednesday) will be a key factor influencing risk appetite. The crypto market is still digesting the correction since October, with Bitcoin falling about 30% from its high. ETFs continue to see net outflows, the Coinbase premium is weakening, and overall sentiment remains low. Although expectations of "stopping balance sheet reduction + earlier interest rate cuts" support the medium-term outlook, the current phase is closer to a rebalancing stage before a liquidity shift, with institutional positions mainly focused on reducing holdings and hedging.
Derivative pricing reflects a defensive market posture: CME BTC futures premium has fallen below 4%, and the term structure is flattening; short-term implied volatility is higher than that of longer-term contracts; the 25-delta bearish skew is negative across all maturities; and implied volatility (IV) rises in tandem with price declines.
Overall, the downtrend may be nearing its end, but risk appetite has not yet recovered. If this week's consumption and employment data weaken moderately, the market may see a technical correction; if the data is stronger than expected, suppressing interest rate cut expectations, a short-term pullback may still be triggered given the weak liquidity during the holiday season. Analysts believe that the $80,000 level is a good range to watch for medium- to long-term investment needs.
