Bitcoin has fallen nearly 17% this month and is on track to post its worst November since at least 2019 , but LVRG's Nick Ruck says this paves the way for a positive start to 2026 .
Bitcoin is likely to end November with its biggest drop since 2019, but analysts say this could set the stage for a good start in 2026, when some investors may start buying again.
“While November will be a red month for crypto, the capitulation signals create an opportunity for smart investors to start buying back in,” Nick Ruck, director of research at LVRG, Chia Cointelegraph.
“Overleveraged participants and unsustainable projects have been essentially eliminated, opening up opportunities for long-term investors to add positions ahead of a promising new year.”
So far this month, Bitcoin is down nearly 16.9% , trading around $91,500 , approaching the decline of November 2019 – when the price lost nearly 17.3% for the entire month, according to CoinGlass data.
Bitcoin's worst November on record was in 2018, when prices fell 36.5% in the brutal bear market following its 2017 peak. However, the last time Bitcoin ended November in the red was in 2022, when it fell 16.2% .
“November is typically one of Bitcoin’s strongest months,” crypto educator Sumit Kapoor Chia Wednesday. But with just a few days left and a quiet Thanksgiving holiday looming, “it’s on track to be the worst November since 2018.”
“Every time Bitcoin has a bearish November, December usually ends in the red as well.”
Justin d'Anethan, director of research at private markets consultancy Arctic Digital, said most long-term crypto investors “are used to a somewhat predictable four-year cycle and that has historically led to year-end rallies, with October, November and often December closing in the green.”
This cycle was triggered earlier by the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US in early 2024 , he said.
“I see this as positive: it raises the rather dangerous thought that ‘this time is different’, as financial institutions finally get involved in a visible way, changing the speed, breadth and timing of crypto market price movements,” he said.
Monthly candle likely to hold above $93,000
Technical analysts are eyeing Bitcoin’s monthly candle close around $93,000 , and predict the price could fall further if it fails to maintain its bullish momentum over the weekend.
“As the monthly candle close approaches – I have highlighted the two most important areas to watch on this timeframe – $93,401 and $102,437 ,” the analyst known as “CrediBull Crypto” Chia on X.
A close above $93,000 “would be a positive signal” and likely, they said, while a close above $102,000 “would be extremely bullish, but probably not until next month.”
A higher Dip can help sustain a long-term uptrend.
At the time of writing, BTC is trading at around $91,600 , moving sideways over the past 24 hours and failing to break the resistance zone just below $92,000 on Thursday.
