Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX and one of the most influential voices in the world of crypto macro analysis, has just issued a remarkable warning about the financial situation of Tether – the company behind USDT, the world's most liquidation stablecoin. According to Hayes, if Tether portfolio of gold and Bitcoin assets falls by about 30% in value, the company could theoretically face the risk of insolvency.
This comment was made in the context of the crypto market being shaken by expectations of a change in US interest rate policy as President Donald Trump continues to pressure the Fed to loosen faster to stimulate growth. Tether, which has profited significantly from short-term US bond interest rates during the high interest rate period, is said to be "betting" on the scenario that the Fed will cut interest rates in the near future. This means that Tether 's interest income is likely to decrease sharply.
To mitigate risk during this volatile period, Tether has increased the proportion of gold and Bitcoin in its reserves – assets that are often XEM as a safe haven when fiat currencies are devalued. According to Hayes, this is a move to offset the impact of “currency depreciation” on the stablecoin USDT. However, this defensive strategy has made Tether ’s balance sheet more sensitive to price fluctuations in Gold and BTC, especially when these two assets are going through a short-term correction cycle after the hot period at the beginning of the year.
Hayes argues that if the market experiences a 30% drop in the Gold- BTC pair, Tether ’s declared Capital would be “blown away,” leading to USDT theoretically becoming insolvent. While this doesn’t mean Tether will collapse, it does highlight the risk of relying on a volatile asset to back a stablecoin worth more than $100 billion in circulation globally.
In a market where USDT Vai as a liquidation lifeline, any questions about Tether ’s solvency could have a ripple effect. Hayes predicts that major exchanges, investment funds, and “whales” holding large amounts of USDT will likely demand greater transparency than ever before, even demanding access to real-time balance sheet data. This is a significant challenge for Tether, which has long been criticized for its lack of transparency relative to the scale of its operations.
