PANews reported on December 1st that Singapore-based crypto investment firm QCP Capital published an analysis stating that after consolidating during Thanksgiving, Bitcoin entered the new year with a downward trend, driven by a series of negative factors in Asia. The Bank of Japan governor's hawkish comments fueled market expectations of a Japanese interest rate hike, pushing the two-year government bond yield to 1%, with a 76% probability of a rate hike on December 19th. China's PMI showed non-manufacturing activity contracting for the first time in nearly three years, raising concerns about regional growth. These factors led investors to question whether global liquidity had truly eased. The comments from the CEO of Strategy further exacerbated Bitcoin's decline. He stated that the company might sell Bitcoin if its share price fell below net asset value and funding dried up, triggering panic and raising concerns about its exclusion from major indices.
Quantitative tightening (QT) officially ended today, and the Kalshi platform shows the probability of a December rate cut has climbed to 87%, while the likelihood of cryptocurrency-backed candidate Kevin Hassett becoming the next Federal Reserve Chairman has risen to 66%. Spot ETF flows have returned to net inflows, showing a positive trend. However, despite these favorable factors, Bitcoin's price action remains contrary to the macro narrative. After a 15% rebound from its recent low of $81,000, a pullback was expected. The key question now is whether Bitcoin can hold its previous lows as bearish sentiment intensifies. This will depend on liquidity conditions and strategy-related fund flows. Bitcoin's rapid adjustment to changes in liquidity remains a prominent feature, and this morning's decline highlighted this sensitivity. With US liquidity easing and Asian macro headwinds intensifying, the next few trading days are crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can close higher in 2025.
