Bitcoin has begun to show signs of stabilization after a sharp drop that left the market oversold. on-chain, spot, and derivatives data suggest that selling pressure is easing, while ETF outflows have returned after a chain of consecutive days of Capital . However, overall market liquidation remains low, sentiment has not fully recovered, and sustainable demand is still lacking.
Below is a detailed analysis of each important index group.
Spot Price and Market: Early Recovery but Liquidation
RSI recovers strongly from oversold zone
RSI rose from 18.6 to 39.6 , breaking out of the lows and showing selling pressure is exhausted.
However, the indicator is still below neutral, meaning the recovery is only in the "breathing" stage and not yet a clear reversal.
Spot CVD turned positive
Spot CVD from -106.6M to +29.9M , showing that buyers are starting to take the initiative again.
This reflects a more positive market sentiment in the short term.
Spot Volume weakens
Spot volume plummeted 42% to $9.2B , near historic lows.
⇒ Real cash flow into the market is still limited, most investors maintain a wait-and-see attitude.
Futures: Derivative market reduces risk, selling pressure shrinks
Open Interest falls below the low band
OI is down to $31.4B , reflecting reduced leverage and trader exits.
Funding rates hit cyclical lows
Funding is down 73% , showing that Longing demand is weakening significantly.
This means: the market is less risky, no longer Longing .
CVD futures rebound
Up nearly 93%, showing that selling pressure from futures is "cooling down".
→ Overall, futures are showing a healthy de-leveraging state, paving the way for a more balanced price structure.
Options: Volatility Undervalued, Sentiment Less Defensive
Options OI increased slightly
Increased from 45.2B to 47.9B , showing that hedging demand and trading remain stable.
Volatility Spread Drops Sharply
From 15.59% → -1.99%, the market is underpricing risk.
⇒ This could be a signal of underpricing risk and could easily lead to sudden strong fluctuations.
Delta skew decreases
Options investors have become less concerned about downside risk.
ETF: Cash flow returns – an important bright spot
ETF cash flow turns positive
+159.8M USD , ending a long streak of chain withdrawals.
⇒ This is the most positive signal of the week.
ETF volume drops sharply
From 38.1B → 18.2B (-52%) , showing that investors are still trading cautiously.
ETF MVRV at stable level
Slight increase from 1.6 to 1.64 → no high profit-taking pressure.
on-chain: Network activity continues to be weak
Active address discount 5%
The decrease in active wallets shows that network activity remains quiet.
Transfer Volume reduced by 25%
on-chain cash flow is lower, reflecting cautious sentiment.
Fee Volume drops below low band
Demand for Block Space decreases → market has less transactions.
→ Overall, on-chain has not shown strong recovery signals yet.
Cash Flow and Supply Structure: Short-Term Investor Participation Increases
Realized Cap Change Reduction
Shows that new Capital flow into the market is very thin.
STH/LTH Supply Ratio increases
Short-term investors account for a higher proportion → the market is susceptible to short-term fluctuations.
Hot Capital Shares Up 40.8%
The "hot" Capital ratio increased significantly → this is a group sensitive to prices and prone to strong fluctuations.
Profit & Loss: Slight improvement but not strong enough
Percent Supply in Profit increased to 66.7%
Signal improved but still below normal stability.
NUPL recovered from -22% → -16%
The market is less loss but still in neutral zone.
Realized P/L Ratio falls to -0.1
Investors are still mainly selling at a loss → reflecting defensive sentiment.
Bitcoin enters a delicate equilibrium phase
Weekly data shows Bitcoin is moving from deleveraging to equilibrium :
Positive points:
Selling pressure decreased sharply
ETFs return to net buying
Futures reduce risk
RSI recovers from oversold zone
Negative points:
Low liquidation
Weak on-chain activity
New Capital is very thin
The supply structure is heavily speculative.
Conditions for BTC to truly recover:
Increase strong cash flow into spot
ETF maintains cash flow
Volume increases again
on-chain operations are more active
Until then, the market is still in a state of “fragile equilibrium” — balanced but fragile .
What do you think the market will be like next? See you on on-chain 48/2025 on Coinmoi website to XEM how the indexes fluctuate during this time.
The article on-chain Week 48/2025: Signals of stability returning but the market remains fragile appeared first on CoinMoi .
