QCP: Bitcoin stabilizes for now; future leadership change at the Federal Reserve will be the focus.

Mars Finance reports that on December 3rd, QCP released its daily market observation, stating that after Monday's sharp fluctuations, the market has entered a wait-and-see mode, appearing calm on the surface but far from relaxed. Bitcoin, after rebounding 5% from its $86,000 low, is quietly consolidating around the $90,000 median; meanwhile, the stock and forex markets remain volatile ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, which is characterized by scarce data but significant political influence. Beneath the surface calm, the market is clearly preparing for the next catalyst. The Federal Reserve leadership is in focus; the next market catalyst is increasingly likely to come from the Fed, especially its new leader. Betting on rapid market changes suggests an approximately 85% probability of Kevin Hassett becoming the next Fed Chair, with Trump expected to formally confirm him early next year. This leadership transition comes at a vulnerable time for monetary policy, raising questions about how the new leadership might influence the Fed's response mechanism. Miran's departure in January 2026, Bostic's departure in February, and Powell's resignation in May—this series of changes could lead the FOMC to adopt a more dovish stance than the market is accustomed to. Next Week's FOMC: Limited Information, High Risks. The upcoming FOMC meeting adds new uncertainties. No new CPI or NFP data will be released during the meeting, making policymakers' visibility far below normal. Even so, the futures market has already priced in a 90% probability of a 25 basis point insurance rate cut next week. Market focus is shifting from simple inflation data to governance, policy stance, and institutional direction. Crypto Market: Temporary Relief, But Unresolved Issues. A major source of anxiety over the weekend has temporarily eased. Strategy raised approximately $1.4 billion through a share offering, extending its operating capital to approximately 21 months and increasing its mNAV to approximately 1.14. Management reiterated that it will only sell BTC if mNAV falls below 1.0. Short-term market sentiment has thus stabilized, but structural pressures remain a concern. The next key risk event is the MSCI index constituent eligibility review (January 15th), which could still trigger significant volatility in Strategy-related fund flows. Currently, crypto assets are maintaining relative stability, but this is a "tense stability," awaiting further clearer signals. With limited macroeconomic catalysts and rising uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve leadership, digital assets are effectively in a pause until policymakers provide further clear guidance.