Lack of demand is preventing Bitcoin from surpassing $94,000 despite being at a crucial on-chain support level; the risk of a return to $89,000–$90,000 remains.
Bitcoin's price has been trading sideways for weeks, repeatedly rejected at $94,000. Although macroeconomic liquidation signals (global M2 reaching historical highs) provide a foundation for the next cycle, current on-chain demand and PnL indicators suggest selling pressure outweighs buying pressure.
- BTC was blocked below $94,000, often retracing to $89,000–$90,000.
- "Apparent demand" has been negative since the end of November, with weak new demand.
- PnL (Private and Net Worth) for 1-3 months has fallen to its lowest level since July 2022; surpassing $100,000 requires significant Capital inflows.
Bitcoin is consolidating below $94,000.
BTC traded sideways, repeatedly testing $94,000 but was heavily sold off, retreating several times to $89,000–$90,000 in the last two weeks.
“Realized cap impulse” in the multi-month support zone as price consolidates below $94,000, according to observations from a post on X by the Founder and CEO of Alphractal . Macro liquidation improves as global M2 reaches historical peak, potentially laying the groundwork for a crypto recovery cycle in 2026.
To assess the risk around $94,000, traders can monitor funding, perpetual contract liquidation , and leverage on the Derivative exchange. Also Read privileges and trading tools on BingX .
on-chain indicators confirm a lack of spot demand.
Bitcoin's "apparent demand" has been negative since the end of November, indicating that new demand is not absorbing the supply from miners and long-term holder .
The "apparent demand" index balances new demand with newly mined BTC supply and supply from long-term holder , according to CryptoQuant . The short breakout in November did not sustain, indicating weakening buying pressure as the price approached $94,000.
PnL 1–3 month returns fall to Dip from July 2022.
The actual PnL (Pay-to-Loss) for BTC holdings of 1–3 months has fallen to its lowest level since July 2022, reflecting loss-making sentiment and a bear-market-like state.
According to CryptoQuant , the recent drop to $84,000 caused the PnL range for the 1-3 month group to hit Dip since July 2022. This indicates that short-term outflows from the market are still dominant, and supply from late buyers is creating pressure as prices approach resistance.
Exceeding $100,000 requires a significant influx of new Capital .
To regain momentum, BTC needs a clear inflow of Capital ; currently, there are no signs of a sufficiently large influx of funds to confirm a sustainable breakout.
The price needs to surpass $94,000 with strong volume and cash inflow. When "apparent demand" reverses into positive territory, combined with improved PnL and positive liquidation signals (M2 maintaining its peak), the probability of a return to an uptrend and heading towards $100,000 will be higher.
Conclude
BTC remains blocked by resistance at $94,000 despite being above on-chain support. A lack of demand is the core bottleneck and must improve to sustain recovery expectations. Until then, the $89,000–$90,000 range continues to be a frequently tested area for price.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why hasn't Bitcoin broken $94,000 yet?
Due to weak new demand, the negative "apparent demand" since the end of November indicates that buying power is insufficient to absorb the supply from miners and long-term holder , resulting in selling pressure at every test of $94,000.
What is "apparent demand"?
It measures the balance between new demand and emerging supply (newly mined BTC and supply from long-term holder ). When the index is negative, demand is insufficient to push the price above key resistance levels.
When can BTC return to an uptrend?
When "apparent demand" reverses to positive, 1-3 month PnL improves and closing prices hold firm above $94,000 with significant Capital inflows. The context of global M2 at historical highs could support a medium- to long-term uptrend.
