
                                    <div>
                                      <h3>Market View</h3>
                                      <p>Bullish on BTC, focusing on bottom support and rebound</p>
                                      <h3>Trading Strategy</h3>
                                      <p>Monitor TMMP and previous low area; consider going long after BTC breaks below, recovers, and strong buying emerges</p>
                                      <h3>Core Logic</h3>
                                      <p><ol>
    <li>
TMMP value remains stable and is close to previous lows
    </li>
    <li>
if BTC breaks and recovers the previous low with strong buy pressure, a healthier bottom structure may form, with TMMP likely providing support
    </li>
</ol></p>
                                    </div>
                                    

TMMP 最新數值更新：下方的關鍵防線🛡
一個月前，我首次提出「淺熊劇本」時（下方引文），
和各位介紹了一項指標：「真實市場平均成本（TMMP）」。
如今，一個月過去了，今天再來和各位報告最新數據：
目前 TMMP 並沒有出現太大的變化，相比當時僅下降了不到 500 點，
目前的數值是「81,569」📊。
如果你是不知道何謂 TMMP 的新朋友，可以先參考下方引文，
在此簡單為新朋友快速介紹一次，同時也幫老朋友重溫其概念📝：
➡️ 公式：（Realized Cap - Thermocap）/（Liveliness x Circulating Supply）
➡️ 扣除礦工部分後，將流入 BTC 市場的總資本，除以活躍籌碼量
➡️ 排除了「礦工」、「長期不流通 / 丟失」籌碼的影響，更為精確
回到正文，結合我在上週分享的技術面看法（https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1998932643094962474…），
以目前的狀況而言，倘若淺熊劇本要順利完成，
則 BTC 或許需要再次對前低（80.5 K）執行一次 Stop Hunt，
也就是「跌破 + 收回 + 出現強力 Taker Buy」的組合拳，
如此一來才能形成更健康的底部結構。
而目前 TMMP 距離前低的距離也非常的近，因此，
如果 TMMP 能夠再次發功、產生支撐效果，那就有助於 Stop Hunt 的完成🔥
💬 如果你不知道何謂 Stop Hunt，可以參考以下帖子，內有詳細說明：
📖 全程貼文為証：我如何透過 liquidity 完美預測 ETH 的兩波暴漲
https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1959793243404829167…
以上，新的一週，祝各位交易順利，也願所有多軍家人都能等來福報🫡
//
📚 相關閱讀資源
淺熊抄底系列分析帖（全）：精簡版摘要整理
https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1994586575015948555…
抄底 BTC，貝格先生正式回歸多軍陣營
https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1991780406572835107…
穩如老狗的高位買入者：10 萬上方買入 BTC 的籌碼族群
https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1996033540270817522…
階段性強力底部訊號：以穩定幣供應比率的角度剖析市場
https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1997845820776022303…

Signal Square

淺熊抄底劇本：極端深度回調或將不復存在⛳️
上週五，我從鏈上數據的角度，和各位分享了 BTC 潛在的兩套劇本，
並評估了兩種不同的黃金坑區域，建議沒看過的朋友可以先看一眼👇：
https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1989146446155903143…
承接該篇分析帖，今天來和各位分享另一視角：BTC 的「真實市場平均成本」。

貝格先生

Twitter

TMMP Latest Update: Key Support Zone Below 🛡

A month ago, when I first introduced the “Shallow Bear Scenario” (see quoted thread below), I also shared a new indicator: the True Market Mean Price (TMMP).

Fast forward to today, here’s the latest data: TMMP hasn’t changed much, down less than 500 points from before, currently sitting at 81,569 📊.

If you’re new and don’t know what TMMP is, check the quoted thread below. Quick rundown for newcomers (and a refresher for OGs) 📝:
➡️ Formula: (Realized Cap - Thermocap) / (Liveliness x Circulating Supply)
➡️ Basically, it’s the total capital flowing into the BTC market (excluding miner rewards), divided by the amount of active coins
➡️ It filters out miners, lost coins, and long-term dormant wallets, so it’s way more precise

Back to the main point: combining this with my tech analysis from last week (https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1998932643094962474…), if we’re following the Shallow Bear playbook, BTC probably needs to run another stop hunt at the previous low (80.5K)—that is, dip below, reclaim, and see strong taker buys. This combo is how you build a healthier bottom structure.

Right now, TMMP is pretty close to the previous low. If TMMP can kick in and offer some solid support, it’ll help fuel the stop hunt and set up for the next move🔥

💬 Not sure what a stop hunt is? Check this thread for a full breakdown:
📖 Full thread proof: How I perfectly predicted ETH’s two major pumps using liquidity
https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1959793243404829167…

That’s it for this week. Wishing everyone smooth trades and big wins for the bulls 🫡

//
📚 More reading:
Shallow Bear Bottom-Fishing Series (Full): TL;DR Summary
https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1994586575015948555…
Mr. Beggar officially flips bullish, catching the BTC bottom
https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1991780406572835107…
Diamond hands at the top: BTC whales stacking above 100K
https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1996033540270817522…
Strong bottom signals: Stablecoin supply ratio analysis
https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1997845820776022303…

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The Rise and Fall of Binance's Dominance: From BUSD's "Unification" to $U's "Conquering the World"—The Stablecoin Wars

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