
                                    <div>
                                      <h3>Market View</h3>
                                      <p>Bullish on BTC, expected to reach new highs in H1 next year</p>
                                      <h3>Trading Strategy</h3>
                                      <p>Consider early positioning in BTC, monitor capital flows and market sentiment</p>
                                      <h3>Core Logic</h3>
                                      <p><ol>
    <li>
Crypto allocation in US wealth is below 0.5%, regulatory easing will bring more funds in by 2026
    </li>
    <li>
monetary easing and USD devaluation drive risk capital into BTC
    </li>
    <li>
the 20 millionth BTC will be mined in March 2025, reinforcing scarcity narrative
    </li>
    <li>
be cautious as previous institutional forecasts were inaccurate
    </li>
</ol></p>
                                    </div>
                                    

在灰度今天发布的2026年展望中预测，比特币将在明年上半年创下历史新高，给出的理由主要有几点
1.美国财富配置中加密货币占比不到0.5%，随着监管放开更多资金会在26年入场。
2.货币宽松降息背景下美元持续贬值，BTC会吸纳这些风险资金。
3.第2000万个BTC将在明年3月份被挖出来，强化稀缺性叙事。
虽然但是，看了一下之前各大机构对比特币在2025年的预测，渣打认为会到25万，Bitwise会到20万，VanEck会到18万，摩根大通会到16万，全部扑街没一个对的😂

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According to Grayscale’s 2026 outlook released today, Bitcoin is expected to hit a new all-time high in the first half of next year. The main reasons are:

1. Crypto makes up less than 0.5% of US wealth allocation, and as regulations loosen, more capital will flow in by 2026.
2. With monetary easing and rate cuts, the dollar will keep depreciating, pushing risk capital into BTC.
3. The 20 millionth BTC will be mined in March next year, reinforcing the scarcity narrative.

That said, looking back at previous BTC price predictions for 2025 from major institutions—Standard Chartered called for $250k, Bitwise $200k, VanEck $180k, JP Morgan $160k—literally none of them got it right 😂

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On December 15, Bitcoin fell from $90,000 to $85,616, a single-day drop of more than 5%.
There were no major scandals or negative events that day, and the on-chain data didn't show any unusual selling pressure. If you only look at news from the crypto, it's hard to...