According to ChainCatcher, citing Bloomberg, the options market shows that Bitcoin is under significant pressure as the year enters its final weeks in 2025, with approximately $23 billion worth of contracts expiring next Friday, potentially exacerbating already high volatility. This amount represents more than half of all open interest on the Deribit platform.
Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz, stated, “Bitcoin positioning remains clearly bearish. 30-day volatility has rebounded to around 45%, while skewness hovers around -5%. Longer-term skewness is also anchored around -5%, indicating that traders are pricing in continued downside risk for the first and second quarters as persistent selling pressure from previously inactive wallets weighs on spot prices.” Positioning around the December 26 contract expiry date reflects this divergence.
Call options are concentrated at strike prices of $100,000 and $120,000, suggesting continued market optimism about a year-end rebound. However, put options have dominated recently, with significant put exposure accumulating at a strike price of $85,000. Furthermore, traders anticipate a market repositioning around two catalysts: hedging ahead of MSCI's decision on January 15th, which may remove companies with more than 50% of their assets in crypto assets from its index; and a resurgence of call-overwriting flows.
