即使营收下降，L1 估值却一直在上升
但相比于比特币，仍然跑输
要想在与比特币的博弈中获得显著的超额收益，L1 层级的加密货币生态系统需要 2000-3000% 的增长才能产生两位数以上的超额收益
例如 SOL 的基本面一直在增长，但价格表现却远不如比特币
市场对 L1 预期的信心可能正在悄然减弱，如果 L1 的生态系统的使用量逐年下降，那这套叙事可能不会再有人买单

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Despite declining revenue, L1 valuations have continued to rise, but they still underperform Bitcoin. To achieve significant excess returns in a bet against Bitcoin, an L1-level cryptocurrency ecosystem needs 2000-3000% growth to generate double-digit excess returns. For example, SOL's fundamentals have been consistently improving, but its price performance has lagged far behind Bitcoin. Market confidence in L1 prospects may be quietly waning. If L1 ecosystem usage declines year by year, this narrative may no longer be compelling.

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The "automatic conversion" of 2022 was a textbook example of a blitzkrieg; and 2023...

The Rise and Fall of Binance's Dominance: From BUSD's "Unification" to $U's "Conquering the World"—The Stablecoin Wars

Source: Galaxy Research; Translation: Jinse Finance xz
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Galaxy: 26 Predictions for the Crypto Market in 2026

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