News Analysis: Bullish and Bearish Signals "Tear Apart" the Market
✅ Long-term positive underlying factors
E. Trump bluntly stated: "The biggest families, companies, countries, and sovereign wealth funds are all hoarding BTC," indicating that the long-term investment logic of institutional funds remains unchanged;
💰The Federal Reserve has restarted liquidity injections (the first time since 2020), and historically such operations have often boosted risky assets (both stocks and cryptocurrencies have benefited).
📊Analysts pinpoint BTC's core advantage: BTC's fixed supply makes it more certain than gold in terms of long-term inflation protection.
⚠️ A cluster of short-term negative factors
Altcoin share falls to a five-year low: Funds are flowing into BTC, and Altcoin continue to "bleed";
Bearish sentiment is rising: CryptoQuant claims the bear market has begun and BTC may fall to $70,000; Santiment believes social media sentiment is overly optimistic and there is still a risk of it falling to $75,000.
🔴Risk Interlude: In 2025, North Korean hackers stole $2.02 billion in cryptocurrency (an increase of $681 million from 2024), further amplifying the industry's security risks;
📉The $100,000 year-end expectation has "cooled down": Kalshi Market data shows that the probability of BTC breaking through $100,000 before the end of the year is only about 11%.
Today's observation: BTC has experienced its fourth consecutive three-month decline. Will the historical rebound be repeated?
View the BTC monthly chart (2020 to present):
This is the fourth time that there have been three consecutive months of decline (the previous three were from April to June 2021, from November 2021 to January 2022, and from April to June 2022, respectively).
— After the first three drops, BTC rebounded to varying degrees (for example, it bottomed out and rebounded after the drop in June 2022).
The key variable now is "liquidity":
Currently, BTC and global M2 liquidity are moving in opposite directions (either risk assets will collectively collapse, or BTC will experience a surge in 2026), while the Federal Reserve has just restarted its injection of funds.
This means that the "future script" of this three-day losing streak largely depends on whether liquidity can remain loose—if the looseness continues, the historical rebound may repeat itself;
If liquidity tightens further, the market may embark on a new downward trajectory.
Do you think that after this three-day drop in BTC, a historical rebound will follow?
(This is not investment advice, DYOR)
