Where does the road lead? 1) Labor is a linear risk hedge, unable to generate excess returns. Alpha always comes from betting on things that aren't based on consensus. 2) Consensus equals mediocrity. When a profit-making logic is widely accepted, its excess returns have already been priced in and disappeared. 3) Before 2021, the crypto market presented extremely high asymmetric opportunities due to its "non-consensus." After 2022, it entered a consensus phase, degenerating from a highly profitable arena into ordinary financial allocation. 4) AI, after GPT, has become an "elite consensus." When the field evolves into an arms race of large capital and computing power, the window of opportunity for ordinary people and startups has closed.

Super Individual