Accumulation in Progress: The Strongest BTC Dominators Are Still Buying ⛽️ OGs know I’ve been talking about one of the most powerful on-chain indicators out there: “The share of BTC supply held by addresses with a holding period of 1-3 years 📊.” It’s been two months since my last update—time for a fresh look at what this metric is telling us. If you’re new here or not familiar with this indicator, check out the quoted explanation below 👇. As shown in the attached chart: the purple line tracks the % of BTC held by 1-3 year holders. Quick refresher on why this matters 📝: 🔸 We group BTC holders by their holding time 🔸 Focus on those holding for 1-3 years 🔸 Calculate their market share 🔸 When their share drops, it means this cohort is shrinking—usually due to selling Looking at the chart, it’s clear: these players have a huge impact on BTC cycles: ➡️ They’re not just diamond hands—they’re active cycle traders who buy and sell ➡️ Their share is highly correlated with BTC bull and bear cycles ➡️ When their share bottoms (after heavy selling), BTC tops out ➡️ When their share peaks (after heavy accumulation), BTC bottoms out I’ve done a deep dive on this concept before—highly recommend checking it out 🔗: 📖 Exploring BTC’s Fading Cycles Through On-Chain Data x.com/market_beggar/status/191...… Back to the update: this metric moves slowly, but since my last thread two months ago (see quote below), the trend is still steady UP 🎢 Also, in my “Fading Cycles” piece, I raised this question: “If cycles fade, will we see more ‘shallow bottom’ setups where BTC quickly finds a floor and rockets up again❓” That was back in April. Now, combining this with my recent “Shallow Bear Scenario” thesis (see links at the end), here’s the interesting bit: If the shallow bear thesis plays out, it could confirm my April view. In other words: as external capital keeps flooding in, the 1-3y cohort’s bottom keeps rising. If the market’s dominant capital completes a “handoff” phase, we might NOT need to wait for the 1-3y share to hit extreme highs before BTC bottoms out‼️ To put it simply: If BTC can break the 4-year cycle curse and the “shallow bear scenario” comes true, We could see a macro bottom BEFORE the 1-3y cohort’s share spikes to historical highs—meaning a fresh bull run could start ahead of schedule 📈 No matter how this plays out, we’re all witnessing history together. That’s all for today—good luck trading this week 🫡 // 📚 More reading: Vote for me! 🔥 x.com/market_beggar/status/200...… The Second Top: Luring More Smart Holders to Sell x.com/market_beggar/status/192...… Shallow Bear Bottom Playbook: Extreme Deep Pullbacks May Be Over x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… Shallow Bear Analysis Series (Full): TL;DR Version x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… Strong Bottom Signal: Stablecoin Supply Ratio Breakdown x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… Deep Bear Extreme Valuation Update: 100% Win Rate “Iron Bottom” x.com/market_beggar/status/200...…