According to CME's FedWatch tool, following the release of today's US macroeconomic data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January has fallen to 13.3%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 86.7%. Last week, the probability of a Fed rate cut in January had risen to 31%. The initial estimate for the annualized quarterly rate of US real GDP in the third quarter, adjusted for inflation, was 4.3%, marking a surge in US GDP growth and the strongest growth since the fourth quarter of 2023.
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until March next year is 54.4%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 40.7%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 4.9%.
The next two FOMC meetings of the Federal Reserve will be held on January 28, 2026, and March 18, 2026.
