A massive options expiry is coming up tomorrow. Once market makers unwind their related hedging positions, the support and resistance zones formed by the options structure will temporarily lose their influence. This could amplify BTC volatility in the short term, until fresh capital steps in and a new market structure emerges. If BTC dips back to its previous lows around 80k-82k during this period, I actually see it as a chance to play a short-term bounce. The volatility during this liquidity vacuum doesn’t necessarily mean the start of a new crash. Plus, I’m seeing bullish divergence signals on the micro-level between price and capital inflows. The "price vs. capital inflow gradient" tracks the relative momentum between BTC price action and real capital entering the market. When capital outflows slow down compared to the pace of BTC’s price drop, it can indicate the downtrend is being corrected—meaning, a bounce is likely. On Chart 1 and Chart 2, I’ve marked four previous bullish divergence signals (2024-2025 and 2021-2022). Each time, BTC saw some degree of bounce or even a full trend reversal. But with overall market sentiment still in a bearish recovery phase, a short-term rebound is more likely this time. ---------------------------------------------- Bitget VIP: Lower fees, bigger perks.
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Murphy
@Murphychen888
12-20
从链上数据也能看到一些当前情绪修复的迹象。
下图红色区域表示在过去30天内,从“持有 BTC”转变为“完全清仓”的地址数量。即30天前账户余额仍大于0,但现在已经清仓的地址。它反映的是投资者在价格与时间双重压力下,选择彻底退出持仓状态的行为。
(图1) x.com/Murphychen888/…



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