"Some Mind-Bending Thoughts on Prediction Markets" 1. Besides speculation, what is the positive value of prediction markets? The stock market, through market pricing, allows high-value companies to achieve high market capitalization, i.e., "value discovery," thereby optimizing capital allocation. Prediction markets, on the other hand, achieve "truth discovery" through the probability of predictions, bringing society closer to the truth. 2. What is the relationship between prediction and truth? In the stock market, the relationship between price and value is that price fluctuates around value, consistently mirroring it in the long run. In prediction markets, the relationship between prediction and truth is that as time progresses, predictions get closer to the truth, until the moment the truth is revealed, achieving complete consistency. 3. What impact does insider trading have on prediction markets? Here's a strange paradox: on the one hand, insider trading is unfair to other participants; on the other hand, insiders can help prediction markets. For example, before the official announcement of the Nobel Prize, a sudden change in the probability of predictions reveals the winner, acting faster than the media and playing a role in "truth discovery." Prediction market platforms and governments have begun developing rules and policies to regulate insider trading. 4. Why do prediction markets need blockchain? This question is similar to, "Why does finance need blockchain?" The reason is greater openness and transparency, which attracts more participants and makes it easier to build an open ecosystem. For example, insider trading can be monitored and analyzed via on-chain wallets (there are already many such monitoring platforms that can pinpoint suspicious insider trading activities, and anyone can analyze them, greatly enhancing platform trust. Trust is core in finance). 5. The Size and Development Potential of the Prediction Market With the US clearing obstacles to the compliance of prediction markets, the industry is now entering a golden age of rapid development. Currently, the daily trading volume of the polymarket is around $100-200 million, reaching 2% of Binance's spot trading volume. In an era where everything can be traded, trading institutions such as Binance, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Interactive Brokers are all striving to establish themselves in the prediction market, none wanting to overtake others in this new arena. After all, this is a new "trading species." The following article analyzes BNB's strategy in the prediction market, offering some opportunities for retail investors to participate. You can take a look. twitter.com/DeFiTeddy2020/stat...

Prediction markets and blockchain are a perfect match.

That hits the nail on the head.

If the boss thinks this is well said, can he give the editor a raise? ☺️