According to ChainCatcher, data analyst Murphy stated that approximately $23.6 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire tomorrow, marking the largest options expiration date in Bitcoin's history. As market makers unwind their hedging positions, the support and resistance levels previously established by the options structure will temporarily become ineffective, potentially amplifying BTC volatility in the short term until all participants re-enter the market and a new funding structure emerges.
If BTC retraces to near its previous low (around $80,000-$82,000) during this period, it will present an opportunity to speculate on a "short-term rebound." Volatility during a period of liquidity vacuum does not necessarily signal the start of a new crash. Furthermore, a "bullish divergence" signal has emerged on a smaller timeframe of the "price and liquidity gradient." The "price and liquidity gradient" measures the relative momentum change between BTC's price momentum and actual capital inflows. When the rate of capital outflow is smaller than the rate of BTC price decline, it can be interpreted as a correction to the downtrend, indicating a potential rebound.
During 2024-2025 and 2021-2022, after four instances of "bullish divergence" signals, BTC experienced varying degrees of rebound and even trend reversals. However, considering that the overall market sentiment is still in a bearish recovery phase, the former scenario is more likely.
