This summary of the compliance licensing for prediction markets is very detailed; I'll study it. My basic understanding is that it can be divided into two categories: 1) Onshore prediction markets. These markets can be understood according to the traditional "exchange-broker-clearinghouse" system. Exchanges correspond to a futures license for DCMs, clearinghouses to DCO licenses, and brokers to FCM licenses. DCMs also need a binary event contract license. 2) For offshore markets, taking Polymarket (Global) as an example, currently, DCM functionality is implemented by CLOB; FCM brokerage functionality is achieved through fund self-custody and full collateralization; and DCO clearing functionality is achieved through atomic swaps of on-chain contracts. However, it's important to note that the settlement decision upon maturity is not made by the clearinghouse, but by the third-party oracles UMA/Chainlink.
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Leo the Horseman (prediction arc)
@LeotheHorseman
如果从美国监管角度理解预测市场的 M&A 和牌照生意,非法律专业人士,仅作信息收集自用:
- 类比 CEX 格局,此处我们将理解两类冲突:在岸所和离岸所、CFTC 监管的衍生品市场与州监管的博彩市场。
- 先聊在岸的预测市场。这类市场能按照传统的“交易所—经纪商—清算所”的体系来理解,交易所对应 DCM


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