The "FUD" assessment of @HyperliquidX's HIP-3 does highlight some issues, but I saw comments jokingly comparing the target 30% APY to Luna-level performance, and that's exactly what hit the nail on the head: Economically speaking, @lordjorx's analysis does make sense. Consider this: deploying a HIP-3 marketplace requires staking 500K HYPE, has a 7-day unstaking lock-up period, and carries the potential risk of slashing penalties. This means that only daily transaction volume between 90m-270m can outperform the native staking APY of 2.2% through transaction fees. The numbers are clear, and indeed, looking at the economic model alone, the HIP-3 mechanism is very unfriendly to deployers, making it difficult for small and medium-sized projects to withstand the pressure. However, the problem lies in the flawed logic of this analytical framework. In my view, HIP-3 at this stage is merely Hyperliquid's ecosystem expansion strategy, largely consistent with the logic of OP Stack and Arbitrum Orbit. The goal is to use future market growth expectations to tell a B2B story that supports the current deflationary expectations for HYPE. For example, rapidly expanding into equity PERP (pre-IPO), RWA, gold reserve futures, bond and foreign exchange, prediction markets, and even CS (presumably referring to a specific type of market) derivatives markets—these are all long-tail assets geared towards the future. The key is the scale effect of the overall market stack, opening up the ecosystem's potential. In other words, Hyperliquid's HIP-3 protocol doesn't aim to make money in every market, let alone earn 20-30% APY. It might just focus on the current 500k staking lock-up and 50% fee repurchase of HYPE. As long as there's a continuous stream of sub-markets being established and the overall trading volume of the HIP-3 market continues to expand, that's sufficient. This is a completely different mindset from Luna and Anchor's UST seigniorage subsidy of 20% APY. Luna was a zero-sum game, while HIP-3 is an expectation of incremental growth, nothing more.
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Jordi in Cryptoland
@lordjorx
HIP-3 markets are not sustainable.
While everyone is hyped about permissionless markets, we need to talk about the math.
Delegating $HYPE to third-party deployers for LSTs isn't just about yield; it's about taking on massive risks: locked capital, slashing, and conflict of x.com/etherfi_VC/sta…



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