I just saw Teddy's tweet, and I'd like to share my own views: 1. Breakthrough in quantum computing led to a collapse in Bitcoin confidence and a price crash. Quantum computing has indeed been a hot topic recently, but compared to […2024111120230…], its disruptive potential on the traditional banking industry is far greater, and the solutions it offers may not be seen in the short term. Why? The answer is simple: those currently at the top of the technology sector are undoubtedly top institutions, including BlackRock. If they believed that quantum computing had a high probability of success in the near future, they wouldn't have needed to enter the cryptocurrency field, and BlackRock is currently the leader in the cryptocurrency industry. What I'm more worried about is the impact on miners due to rising electricity and overall costs, coupled with the downward fluctuations in BTC prices, leading to a widespread devaluation of mining equipment. These signs are already beginning to appear. 2. Unexpected Fed Rate Hike, Bitcoin as a Risk Asset Expected to Pull Back Significantly It's not entirely impossible, but the likelihood is relatively low. The main reason is that Powell's influence in the first half of the year limited the Fed's ability to make significant changes. In the second half, Trump's influence will likely limit any major changes; maintaining a tight monetary policy would be a challenge. A rate hike would only be possible with a significant rebound in inflation, which currently seems unlikely. I'm more concerned that even with a new Fed chairman, Trump might not be able to influence the Fed, and the Fed might still maintain its policy of around two rate cuts throughout the year. This could have a greater impact on the market. 3. Midterm Election Results Leading to a Democrat-Driven Congress, Shifting Crypto Policy While it's possible that the Democrats could control the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, this wouldn't necessarily make them an obstacle to cryptocurrencies. In fact, many cryptocurrency-related bills were pushed by both Democrats and Republicans, especially the stablecoin bill. Therefore, it's unlikely that the Democrats are truly opposed to cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, the SEC and CFTC bills were also bipartisan. I'm more concerned that Trump might act erratically after losing the House in the midterm elections. 4. The failure of the Clarity bill, a US crypto market structure bill, has slowed institutional adoption of crypto. This bill, primarily aimed at transparent stablecoin payments, has passed the House of Representatives but faces some resistance in the Senate, mainly due to concerns about weakening the position of traditional banks. However, Clarity conditionally obtained an OCC license, essentially getting on board first and paying the fine later. I'm more concerned about tax-related legislation potentially forcing some investors to sell assets to pay taxes. 5. USDT de-pegging due to reserve issues or a banking crisis, triggering a chain reaction and destroying confidence in the stablecoin industry. I don't believe this, and the reasons are self-evident. 6. Large DeFi protocols being attacked, amplifying to RWA, causing systemic risk. This is unlikely. Even if a DeFi protocol experiences systemic risk, it has little to do with current RWAs; in fact, there are almost no truly reliable RWAs. If we're talking about blockchain-based US stocks, I think it's far from a systemic risk. On the contrary, I'm more worried about the potential collapse of well-known exchanges or even larger-scale thefts in 2026. This could even lead to an inability to repay user assets. 7. AI technology experienced its second revolutionary leap after ChatGPT, gaining full attention from the capital market, while Web3 was further neglected. Actually, cryptocurrencies haven't seen any significant technological iterations in a long time. Let alone AI, even the technologies that have driven BTC's rise in recent years haven't brought about major breakthroughs in cryptocurrencies due to technological updates. If cryptocurrencies relied on technology as their selling point, they would probably already be worthless. I'm more concerned that the computing power and electricity consumption of AI might take away space from cryptocurrencies. These are my personal opinions, and they may not be correct. Thanks to Teddy for the summary.

The analysis is excellent. Especially the collapse or even larger-scale theft of well-known exchanges, which certainly has a greater impact than attacks on DeFi protocols. However, Clarity's legislation concerns the crypto market structure, which is somewhat different from the Genius Act.