A recent year-end research report released by US investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald suggests that the cryptocurrency market may have entered the early stages of a "Crypto Winter" in Bitcoin's historic four-year cycle. The report, authored by analyst Brett Knoblauch, argues that Bitcoin has been falling for over 85 days since its peak this year and may still face downward pressure in the short term, with the market gradually reverting to the adjustment patterns of past cycles.
Institutional funds are gradually reshaping the crypto market structure.
The report points out that the current price of Bitcoin is around $87,460, only slightly higher than the average holding cost of large institutional investors. MicroStrategy (MSTR), the world's largest Bitcoin reserve company, has an average Bitcoin cost of around $75,000. Knoblauch warns that if the price further declines and tests this key level, it could trigger market tension and even panic selling.
However, Cantor Fitzgerald emphasizes that this downward correction differs significantly from past cycles. The report argues that market dominance has shifted from retail investors to institutional investors, making a repeat of large-scale liquidations or systemic collapses unlikely. Despite relatively weak token price performance, on-chain development continues, particularly in areas like decentralized finance (DeFi), asset tokenization, and blockchain infrastructure, with no deterioration in fundamentals.
Overall, the report is not entirely pessimistic about the market outlook; rather, it views the current correction as a necessary process for the industry to mature. Cantor Fitzgerald points out that the increasing involvement of institutional funds is gradually reshaping the crypto market structure and enhancing the industry's long-term stability.
The crypto market is maturing
Regarding specific growth drivers, the report anticipates that the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) will become a significant trend in the coming years. Cantor Fitzgerald estimates that the RWA tokenization market is expected to expand from approximately $18.5 billion this year to over $50 billion by 2026, at which point more traditional financial institutions will attempt to adopt on-chain settlement models. On the other hand, even if overall trading volume may decline, the market share of decentralized exchanges (DEXs) continues to climb, and products such as perpetual contracts are also expected to benefit from improvements in infrastructure and user experience, thus maintaining growth.
An improved regulatory environment is also considered a positive factor. The report mentions that the recently passed Clarity Act in the United States clearly defines that once digital assets meet decentralized standards, their spot markets will be regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This framework helps reduce policy uncertainty, attracts banks and asset management institutions to participate more actively in the market, and provides a clear compliance path for decentralized protocols.
In addition, the rapid rise of on-chain prediction markets has also attracted attention, especially in the sports betting sector, where the cumulative trading volume has exceeded $5.9 billion and has attracted large platforms such as Robinhood, Coinbase and Gemini to enter the market and introduce a more transparent order book trading model.
Cantor Fitzgerald concludes that while a rapid price surge may not occur in 2026, more robust infrastructure and deeper institutional adoption are quietly taking shape, laying a solid foundation for the long-term development of the crypto industry.
