Prediction markets are being XEM as Web3's "new gold mine," but new data on Polymarket reveals a harsh truth: the majority of players lose, and profits are concentrated in a tiny group.
According to statistics cited by CryptoNews from the DeFi blockchain analytics company Oasis , among more than 1.7 million transaction addresses on Polymarket:
Approximately 70% suffered Capital.
Only 30% are profitable.
The biggest shock lies in the distribution of profits: less than 0.04% of addresses earned over 70% of the total profits , equivalent to approximately $3.7 billion . In other words, this is a game where the "sharks" win big, and the majority pay the price.
Even the most profitable group—those with profits of $0–$1,000 —represents 24.56% of addresses , but only accounts for 0.86% of total profits . To earn more than $1,000 , you need to be in the top 4.9% of participants.
In conclusion: Polymarkets resemble real markets — not everyone wins , and most of the money is in the hands of those with informational advantages, speed, and discipline.
