There are growing predictions that the cryptocurrency market, represented by Bitcoin, will enter a period of stability next year as price volatility decreases due to the increasing presence of institutional investors. In particular, the market-friendly policies of the Donald Trump administration, which incorporated cryptocurrencies into institutional finance, are expected to accelerate institutional capital inflows, sustaining the medium- to long-term upward trend.
According to CoinMarketCap, a global cryptocurrency market monitoring site, as of 9:00 AM on the 30th, Bitcoin's price was $87,132, down approximately 6% from the beginning of the year. Starting in the $90,000 range at the beginning of the year, Bitcoin plummeted to the $70,000 range in April following President Trump's announcement of comprehensive tariffs. Following the passage of the "Genius Act," which stipulated a stablecoin issuance and oversight system, in July, Bitcoin soared back to the $120,000 range. However, the price was hit by the US-China trade conflict and the US government shutdown, which pushed it back down to the $80,000 range.
While concerns are rising about further declines following the year-end rally, the market is offering rosy predictions that Bitcoin could hit an all-time high next year. Citigroup and JP Morgan have projected Bitcoin's peak price for next year at $189,000 and $170,000, respectively. Grayscale has also predicted that the price will reach its peak in the first half of next year.
Along with Bitcoin, Ethereum also has an optimistic outlook. Citigroup forecasts Ethereum's price for next year at $4,304 to $5,132, representing a 40-45% increase from the current price. Citigroup analyzed, "Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum's ability to generate 'staking' revenue is also attractive to institutional investors." Staking involves depositing cryptocurrency into the network to participate in transaction verification and receive rewards in return.
The reason major Wall Street financial firms are weighing in on rising cryptocurrency prices is due to structural changes in the market. Experts believe that the launch of cryptocurrency spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) last year has sparked an influx of institutional funds, including pension funds and insurance companies, and the characteristics of these funds have led to a reduction in short-term volatility, signaling the beginning of a full-blown structural shift.
Citigroup analyzed that "the primary market dynamic is shifting from speculative demand to institutional and regulatory structural changes," and that "if the 'Clarity Act' is finally passed early next year, capital inflow into ETFs will increase further." The Clarity Act clearly distinguishes between cryptocurrencies as security tokens and digital commodities. By establishing legally the previously ambiguous classification criteria for cryptocurrencies, it is expected to increase participation from large institutions, such as banks, that have previously been hesitant to enter the market.
In particular, the growth of the stablecoin and real-asset tokenization (RWA) markets next year is expected to further accelerate the inflow of funds into the cryptocurrency market. While cryptocurrency spot ETFs have created a channel for institutional capital inflow, stablecoins and other platforms are expected to become key infrastructure for elevating cryptocurrencies into the institutional financial ecosystem.
However, there are also pessimists. Fidelity argued that the "four-year cycle" theory (with its four-year cycle of sharp ups and downs) that has been used to explain Bitcoin price movements remains valid, and analyzed that "next year will be a period of adjustment ahead of the next halving." They warned that "if $120,000 in October this year is the peak, a 'cryptocurrency winter' could become a reality next year," and presented a Bitcoin price forecast of $65,000 to $75,000 for next year.
Experts cited the following as additional variables: the possibility of policy delays; regulatory uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic variables such as interest rates, the dollar, and liquidity; and the sustainability of ETF fund inflows.
- Reporter Park Min-joo
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