Analysts have suggested that Bitcoin is merely entering the prelude to a long-term supercycle. They argue that a true supercycle will only begin when funds structurally shift from traditional safe-haven assets like gold to Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin Supercycle Hasn't Started Yet
In a long-term outlook post on his X account on December 27, cryptocurrency analyst Killa pointed out that many investors mistakenly believe that a supercycle has begun simply because of Bitcoin's price increase. He emphasized that a true supercycle should be accompanied by a "generational shift in funds," rather than short-term returns.
Killa analyzed that, "For Bitcoin to experience structural inflows, gold must first enter a multi-year downtrend. During this process, Bitcoin, as a store of value based on scarcity, will absorb the funds flowing out of gold." He argued that a true supercycle requires a significant shift in capital flow, not a simple rebound.
Gold Chart 1972 vs. Bitcoin 2027
Killa emphasized that the gold market in the 1970s and the current Bitcoin price pattern are very similar. He explained that gold then experienced a bullish trend, then corrected, found support at a major retracement level, and then experienced explosive growth for several years. He also diagnosed that Bitcoin is currently showing similar movements after correcting within an ascending channel.
He argued that “Bitcoin has a similar structure to gold, and if this trend continues, it has the potential to outperform all assets in the next cycle.”
Analysts also suggest that there's ample room for growth based on market capitalization. Gold's current market capitalization is approximately $31.7 trillion (approximately KRW 45,686 trillion), while Bitcoin's is approximately $1.83 trillion (approximately KRW 2,637 trillion). Even if Bitcoin rises to $200,000 (approximately KRW 288.2 million), its value would still be approximately six times lower than gold's. This is interpreted as an indicator of potential market expansion.
Investor sentiment wavers on the eve of a supercycle.
Meanwhile, Killa analyzed that the emergence of quantum computing and artificial intelligence (AI) is posing new threats to investor sentiment. While regulations, energy consumption, and volatility were previously major concerns, technological threats are now making investors anxious.
While these fears are driving some investors out of the market, he sees this as a natural phenomenon that occurs just before a Bitcoin price surge. Rather, he explains, it could be a final opportunity to buy at the bottom before the next long-term rally. He declared continued buying, saying, "This cycle may be the last opportunity to buy Bitcoin below $100,000 (approximately 144.1 million won)."
Ultimately, the trend boils down to 'generational capital transfer.'
Killa interpreted this trend as a structural shift, not a simple price cycle, as the capital of the older generation, which had been holding onto the traditional asset of gold, is shifting to Bitcoin, especially among the digital native generation. He emphasized, "In terms of absolute scarcity and suitability for the digital age, Bitcoin could be a better alternative asset than gold," adding that when this transition begins in earnest, the market will enter a supercycle.
🔎 Market Interpretation
The analysis suggests that Bitcoin's upward trend is still just the beginning of a true supercycle, and that a strong rally can only begin when capital flows from gold to Bitcoin begin in earnest.
💡 Strategy Points
Based on past gold rallies, it's important to note that Bitcoin is historically positioned at a significant level. Furthermore, the market capitalization gap could provide Bitcoin with additional upside potential in the long term.
📘 Glossary
Supercycle: A market trend in which a specific asset experiences sustained price increases over several years. This is typically accompanied by structural supply and demand, capital inflows, and psychological shifts.
Absolute scarcity: The concept that the supply itself is limited, allowing its value to increase over time. Bitcoin has a limited issuance of 21 million.
💡 Want to know more? AI-prepared questions for you:
A. Cryptocurrency analyst Killa points out that many people believe a Bitcoin price surge immediately signals the start of a supercycle, but this is incorrect. A true supercycle begins when funds structurally shift from traditional assets like gold to Bitcoin, which occurs when gold declines for a prolonged period and Bitcoin reaches new highs. A supercycle is not simply a price surge, but rather a significant shift in how assets store value.
A. Killa shows a chart of gold, which began a strong rally in 1972, followed by a correction and then an explosive, long-term rally, and explains that Bitcoin's current pattern is nearly identical to gold's. This suggests that Bitcoin could experience a significant rise, outpacing all other assets, like gold, and highlights the generational shift in capital from gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, to Bitcoin. This comparison historically supports Bitcoin's future potential.
A. Analysts say that even if Bitcoin rises to $200,000, its market capitalization will only be about one-sixth of gold's. Market capitalization is the total market value of an asset, and the fact that gold's market capitalization is much larger means that Bitcoin still has room for growth. This demonstrates the potential for Bitcoin to surpass gold, indicating ample room for capital inflow.
A. Killa believes that quantum computing and artificial intelligence are emerging as new market fears, following regulatory and energy concerns. While these fears could lead investors to sell off their Bitcoin holdings, he explains that this is a common pattern just before a major move. He suggests that heightened market fears can also present opportunities.
A. Despite the current correction, analysts believe Bitcoin will soon enter a decisive uptrend, suggesting that this could be the last opportunity to accumulate below $100,000. This is an optimistic view based on long-term capital flows and historical patterns, and suggests that structural changes should be observed amidst short-term market volatility.
TP AI Precautions
This article was summarized using a TokenPost.ai-based language model. Key points in the text may be omitted or inaccurate.
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