The increased supply of stablecoins indicates that buying power is "on the sidelines," and if this money returns to the market, Bitcoin could surge to the $94,000–$96,000 range, or even head towards $100,000 in January.
Bitcoin benefited from inflows into Spot ETFs in the first half of the year and reached an all-time high of $126,000 in early October. However, the recent 10-week correction has made the short-term outlook difficult to trade, as both buyers and sellers face the risk of being wiped out in thin liquidation conditions.
- Bitcoin has been repeatedly rejected at the $90,000 resistance level, indicating an unclear short-term trend.
- The cluster of Short positions liquidated between $91,000 and $96,400 could pull the price up in a " liquidation sweep" phase.
- Traders are advised to exercise caution, as any rebound may only be a macro "lower high" around the 200-day moving average.
The volatile market is making Bitcoin buyers hesitant.
In the short term, Derivative data and price behavior suggest the dominant trend remains bearish, making it difficult for investors to expect a sustained breakout immediately.
Short-term positioning from the "sophisticated" group of participants is defensive. The 25-Delta Risk Reversal indicator on the 1-week timeframe reflects a preference for hedging against downside risk rather than betting on a sharp upward move.
On the 1-day chart, selling pressure is significant, while buying pressure has yet to create a sustained upward movement. Attempts to break through the $94,000 resistance level were rejected, reinforcing the view that buyers are not in control of the uptrend.
Over the past two weeks, the $90,000 mark has Vai as a strong local resistance level. With repeated dips around this area, a decisive breakout above both $90,000 and $94,000 currently lacks clear signals.
Bitcoin has the potential to surpass $90,000 thanks to the liquidation zone above.
The cluster of liquidation located just above the price, particularly the Short liquidation zone of $91,000–$96,400, could push Bitcoin higher in a short-term rally.
In the crypto market, liquidation often "draws" prices towards areas where orders are concentrated. The cluster of Short liquidations between $91,000 and $96,400 is close to the market price, so a short-term rebound becomes more likely, especially when liquidation amplifies volatility.
If the upward momentum triggers a liquidation chain , the price could surpass $96,000 in a short period. However, since the main driving force comes from the Derivative market, such an upward movement risks a retracement after the liquidation is cleared.
For traders, the " liquidation sweep" scenario is often suitable for taking profits in specific zones, or reducing positions when the price enters the upper liquidation cluster, rather than automatically assuming it's the start of a long-term uptrend.
Recommended course of action for traders: Prioritize staying out of the market when both-way risks increase.
With low liquidation the holiday season and prices consistently being rejected at $90,000, the risk of a sweep increases on both sides; a safer strategy is to patiently wait for confirmation signals.
Market conditions are considered risky for both buyers and sellers. Low liquidation around the holiday period contributed to several quick rejections around the $90,000 level, making breakout or top/ Dip -buying attempts more likely to fail.
One psychological support factor for buyers is the perceived minimal selling pressure from long-term holders. However, this does not mean prices will rise immediately if capital remains on the sidelines.
According to Benjamin Cowen , a rebound to the 200-day moving Medium (MA200), currently around $106,800, may only create a macro "lower high." Therefore, even with a strong rebound, traders should not assume the market will return to a new peak in the short term.
Overall outlook: The January scenario revolves around $94,000–$96,000 and the $100,000 mark.
If the buying power from stablecoins shifts from "staying on the sidelines" to actively investing, Bitcoin could head towards $94,000–$96,000 first, and $100,000 is a scenario that only occurs if the upward momentum continues.
The current picture consists of two main Shard : (1) price behavior showing repeated rejection at $90,000, implying a weak short-term trend; (2) Derivative liquidation the price creating conditions for a “liquidity sweep” in January, targeting the $94,000–$96,000 region.
These observations also align with the view that the increased supply of stablecoins reflects potential "firepower," but may not necessarily be true buying pressure until capital begins flowing in. In this context, risk management and waiting for confirmation of breakouts/holdings at key technical levels remain priorities.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Bitcoin repeatedly rejected at the $90,000 mark?
Because $90,000 has been a strong local resistance level for the past two weeks, combined with thin liquidation , upward movements are easily sold off quickly, making it difficult for buyers to sustain the breakout.
Why is it said that Bitcoin could rise to $94,000–$96,000 despite a weak short-term trend?
Because there is a cluster of Short liquidations above the price range of $91,000–$96,400. When the price enters this zone, the triggering of liquidations could create a short-term upward movement that acts as a " liquidation sweep," not necessarily a sustainable reversal.
What does the 200-day moving average around $106,800 mean for traders?
If the price rebounds to the 200-day moving average, that rebound may only be a macro "lower high," meaning the subsequent peak is lower than the previous one. This warns traders not to assume that the rebound will continue to set a new historical high.
