很多小伙伴问我对 2026年 的预期或看法，其实我在 2025年 11月7日 就写过了。
稍微总结和细化一下：
1. 我个人觉得第一季度包括1月到4月是充满挑战的，一方面是美联储大概率不会在1月调整利率，再次调整就要在3月了，而且3月还有点阵图，而3月其实是给川普最好的信号。

虽然早了点，但我还是想聊聊2026年
2025年就快要结束了，市场很多投资者都在预测2026年的走势，在目前的情况下我将2026年分为三个时间轴：
第一阶段 — — 鲍威尔离职前的1月到5月  x.com/Phyrex_Ni/stat…

Phyrex

Twitter

Many friends have asked me about my expectations or opinions for 2026. Actually, I wrote about it on November 7, 2025.

To summarize and elaborate a bit:

1. I personally think the first quarter, including January to April, will be full of challenges. On the one hand, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to adjust interest rates in January; the next adjustment will be in March. Moreover, March will see the dot plot, which is actually the best signal for Trump.

Author: Yuanshan Insights
Data Source: Farside Investors, SoSoValue, Fed H.4.1 Report, CryptoQuant

On the first trading day of 2026, BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $471 million.

What does this figure mean?

In November and December, the combined net outflow of spot BTC ETFs was approximately $4.57 billion; with a net outflow of approximately $1.09 billion in December alone.

Many people frantically sold at a loss above 93K, and institutions bought back about one-tenth of that amount on January 2nd alone.

Also happening...

Smart money influx! Decoding the three driving forces behind the BTC rebound.

After a long period of weakness, the meme coin has finally seen an encouraging rebound.
Since mid-September last year, the total market capitalization of Meme Coin gradually declined from approximately $80 billion to a low of only $35 billion, with virtually no significant rebound along the way. However, in the first week of 2026, the total market capitalization of Meme Coin finally rebounded, returning to nearly $50 billion.
During the same period, the market capitalization of Meme coin as a percentage of the overall Altcoin reached its lowest point since July 2022, almost reaching its lowest level since then...

Besides $114,514, what other projects should I keep an eye on?

Author: Bitcoin Orange Trader
The Japanese-language native Meme coin, priced at $114,514, has seen a nearly 50-fold increase in the past 48 hours.

Currently, this trend is mainly concentrated in the Japanese community; it hasn't yet gained widespread traction in the Chinese-speaking world, indicating a significant information gap due to cultural differences.

1. Meme Origins and Cultural Genes (Cult Culture)

This isn't a random combination of numbers, but rather a legendary "meme" in Japanese internet culture (similar to "Chicken You're So Beautiful" in Chinese or "Pepe" in Western culture), possessing extremely strong viral potential and community consensus.

...