Two key on-chain signals have emerged: 1. Declining Holder Concentration The concentration of BTC within a 5% price range around the spot price on Jan 1, 2026 hit 14.9%—just one step away from the high-volatility risk zone we’ve been talking about. However, on Jan 2 and Jan 3, instead of increasing, it dropped to 14.5%. Meanwhile, BTC’s price is slowly trending upward. (Pic 1) Holder concentration mainly impacts volatility, not direction. But historically, there’s a hidden pattern: when concentration starts turning down, it tends to follow BTC’s price movement. Put simply: if rising BTC prices cause concentration to shift from climbing to declining, then as concentration keeps dropping, BTC tends to continue its upward momentum—and vice versa. 2. URPD Structure Is Holding Strong Latest URPD data shows 822,000 BTC are stacked at the $87,000 level. Bulls and bears are locked in a fierce battle here, and a winner is about to emerge. (Pic 2) As the turnover point shifts right, it confirms that this massive URPD bar is providing solid support. Based on this, my personal view is that $92,000-$104,000 is a reasonable trading range for now. I mentioned this in my Dec 26 post—check it out for deeper analysis: x.com/Murphychen888/status/200...… (Pic 3) And combining with yesterday’s post: technically, once the daily candle closed above the downtrend line ($90,588), that was the signal for a rebound—and we’ve already seen that play out. Some folks in the comments pointed out it could be a fake breakout. That risk is real, but based on current data and indicators, I personally think the odds of a real rebound are higher than a false breakout leading to further downside. Unless BTC breaks below the $87,000 support, drops back under the downtrend line, and concentration starts climbing again—then we’ll need to reassess. ----------------------------------------- Bitget VIP—lower fees, bigger perks, more alpha.