Original article | Odaily Odaily( @OdailyChina )
Author｜jk 
As usual, The Block Research, a well-known crypto research firm, released its annual forecast report at the beginning of the new year. As one of the earliest established professional research teams in the industry, The Block Research is highly influential in the crypto space for its in-depth data analysis and reliable market insights . This year, their analyst team has set several ambitious goals: Bitcoin will reach $140,000, stablecoin market capitalization will surpass $500 billion, Polymarket and Base will launch their own tokens and enter the top ten, and several crypto companies will IPO, among others . Interestingly, the analysts' opinions are not entirely consistent; some are optimistic about a mini-bull market in 2026, while others believe the market will continue to diverge.
This forecast report is a compilation of individual opinions. Let's see what the industry's top researchers have to say; remember to come back at the end of the year to see who's proven wrong!
Steven's prediction
Tom Lee's Bitmine will sell off its first ETH before the end of Q1 2026. This sell-off could trigger other Digital Asset Trusts (DATs) to follow suit, further dampening market sentiment.
Bitcoin's market dominance will remain above 50% throughout the year.
Polymarket and Base are about to launch their own tokens, and their fully diluted valuations could propel them into the top ten in market capitalization.
The Base ecosystem will see a surge of mobile-first crypto applications. The market will experience several mini-cycles of hot topics similar to those of 2025, including: RWA (Real-World Assets), prediction markets, and mobile projects.
Tether, along with other organizations, will launch a crypto exchage in the United States.
Robinhood will launch cryptocurrency perpetual contracts.
Eden's prediction
The velocity of stablecoins is poised for explosive growth, primarily driven by regulated payment institutions adopting stablecoins for clearing and settlement. The total market capitalization of stablecoins will surpass $400 billion, although USDT's market share will decline. There will be 20 stablecoins with a market capitalization exceeding $1 billion. The total value of non-stablecoins like RWA will exceed $30 billion. In addition to gold, other commodities will also be tokenized and gain market acceptance.
Decentralized perpetual contract exchanges (DEXs) will launch stock and commodity perpetual contracts, generating substantial trading volumes. Whether for spot or perpetual contracts, the trading volume ratio between DEXs and CEXs will stabilize at around 20%. DEXs based on the Request for Quotation (RFQ) model will emerge as leaders.
Polymarket and Kalshi's annual trading volume has at least tripled, and the two companies will engage in fierce competition for exclusive partnerships. At least one of them will launch its own blockchain.
Plasma will become one of the top four public chains in terms of TVL (Total Value Locked) based on real on-chain activity, making it one of the few enterprise-grade blockchains with genuine organic growth. Base and MetaMask will issue native tokens. Several leading crypto companies, including Kraken, BitGo, and Consensys, will launch IPOs, regaining mainstream capital attention. Strategy and BitMine will not sell their holdings of BTC and ETH.
Bitcoin will break $140,000. Although Bitcoin's market share will decline, it will not fall significantly below 50%.
Bitcoin is expected to reach a new high in the second quarter.
NFT and memecoin launch platforms will not make a comeback.
The concept of privacy will gradually fade from the market.
The four-year cycle theory will be disproven by the end of the year.
Gabriel's prediction
DAT's trading price will continue to fall below its adjusted net asset value (mNAV), forcing many funds to sell assets. As crypto ETFs become easier to trade and offer better risk-reward ratios, DAT's story will gradually lose its appeal.
With large-scale token unlocks coupled with weak market sentiment, tokens issued in this cycle will face sustained selling pressure. Short-sighted buyback and burn strategies will instead become a burden for project teams when market sentiment deteriorates and cash reserves dwindle.
Funding valuations will be significantly lower than this year's levels. Many venture capitalists will learn from their experience with overvalued investments—while they may seem cheap compared to previous cycles, valuations will continue to decline as the industry matures and the hype subsides.
Native tokens will struggle to attract buyers as stablecoins become the most attractive and widely used asset class in DeFi, with on-chain activity rapidly shifting from ETH and SOL denominated to USDC denominated.
Ivan's prediction
The recovery in 2026 will follow a K-shaped pattern: low-quality projects will lose market attention, while funds and attention will concentrate on high-quality projects with real paying users.
High-performing sectors include decentralized perpetual contract exchanges and prediction markets.
Crypto projects are generally delaying their token launches and opting for IPOs instead. Similarly, high-quality DAT funds will continue to explore on-chain applications, while other funds are forced to sell tokens under pressure from continuously shrinking net asset value.
As Altcoin struggle to maintain their market position, Bitcoin's market share will rise in 2026, with funds flowing into listed crypto companies. Crypto stocks will continue to perform strongly, driven by business diversification (mining companies transitioning to AI computing power, exchanges launching stock trading, etc.). Despite volatility, Bitcoin will outperform the Nasdaq in 2026. Outside of crypto, the US gold sell-off will signal a bottom for the US dollar index.
Brandon's prediction
The rise of bank-issued deposit tokens in 2026 will fragment institutional liquidity across banks' proprietary ledgers (e.g., the competition between JPMorgan Coin and Citi Coin). Since global banks are structurally unable to hold large amounts of their competitors' liabilities, USDC will become the dominant neutral bridging asset, with its 2026 growth largely driven by its value as a clearing tool between isolated bank networks.
Agent-to-Agent transactions will be standardized on the x402 protocol and account for a significant share of global on-chain activity.
Cryptocurrency "Greek" derivatives, such as implied volatility products (like BTCVOL-PERP) or funding rate swaps, will gain market favor in 2026.
Alessandro's prediction
2026 started slowly, with the first half of the year expected to be range-bound. High-risk premiums and selective capital led to the best performance from mainstream cryptocurrencies. The consistent winners were products with real users and sustained usage, especially wallets and trading platforms, which continued to acquire customers even with weak token performance. The second half of the year is generally bullish, with a few ecosystems and projects attracting the majority of new funds. The strongest buying interest came from new consumer products that combined risk with solid fundamentals.
Cross-chain interoperability became the dominant theme of the year, with improvements in cross-chain routing and chain abstraction allowing "super apps" to gain market share. RWA made progress through tokenized stocks, equity perpetual contracts, and credit products, while traditional finance continued to advance internal or permissioned distributed ledger technologies. This exacerbated the divergence between "true cryptocurrencies" (as a high-risk testing ground for new mechanisms and markets) and enterprise-grade DLT settlement systems.
Better execution, tools, and automation are further concentrating arbitrage opportunities in the hands of specialized institutions. Stablecoin supply is growing at an accelerated pace, with the US dollar still dominating, but the Swiss franc and Singapore dollar have seen the strongest growth from small bases. The forecasting market is experiencing compound growth during the US midterm elections, while the risk of a chaotic insider trading investigation is also rising.
Simon's prediction
Bitcoin's market share remains above 50%. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies will not surpass $4 trillion. ETFs across all currencies will see net inflows throughout the year. Trading volume for ETFs excluding BTC and ETH will reach $20 billion. Stablecoin adoption continues to grow, with traditional businesses launching new stablecoins and existing stablecoins continuing to expand.
Prediction markets are projected to be the fastest-growing crypto application in 2026, with open interest reaching $500 million and trading volume accounting for 3% of total centralized exchange (CEX) volume. These platforms will actively attract users by issuing tokens. Thanks to technological advancements, decentralized derivatives trading volume continues to grow, reaching 25% of centralized derivatives trading volume.
NFTs will not revive in 2026, and the NFT market transaction volume will continue to shrink.
Tiago's prediction
Prediction markets will continue to be one of the strongest narratives in the crypto space, while other concepts that have dominated the market over the past two years, such as memecoin and various launch platforms, will lose momentum.
Even though ETFs and other financial instruments continue to attract attention from institutional and retail investors, it will be difficult for Bitcoin and other mainstream cryptocurrencies to continue to reach new all-time highs against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions.
Stablecoins will remain the strongest narrative for attracting new users to the crypto space, with major players either launching their own stablecoins or partnering with established institutions like Circle and Tether.
Ian's prediction
Most DATs will crash in 2026 as their share price falls below net asset value, breaking the equity issuance pattern that underpinned their growth in 2025. Crypto ETFs, offering better liquidity and lower fees, will further squeeze the survival space for DATs. Strategy and a few large institutions will survive due to their scale and brand advantages, but smaller DATs face liquidation, acquisition, or forced transformation.
Stablecoin supply is poised to surpass the $500 billion mark, with transaction volume exceeding that of the US ACH system in the third quarter. Growth is accelerating on two fronts: continued expansion in emerging markets and integration into corporate payment processes in developed markets. Businesses are shifting from passive holding to active use, migrating a portion of cross-border supplier payments, international contractor salaries, and intra-group settlements to stablecoins. At least one major card organization is expected to complete 5-10% of its cross-border merchant settlements via stablecoins by the end of the year. B2B payment platforms are increasingly integrating stablecoin options for international invoices.
Prediction markets experienced explosive growth during the US midterm elections, with Polymarket's trading volume quadrupling compared to 2024. The industry has become increasingly polarized: Polymarket and Kalshi dominate the cultural and political markets, while dedicated DeFi platforms focus on leveraged financial products. 85% of copycat platforms shut down due to their inability to acquire users. The legal framework for sports betting and prediction markets remained unclear until the end of the year, but user growth continued to accelerate due to the market's massive size and attractiveness.
