Trader "beachboy4" lost over $2M in just 35 days on #Polymarket! 1/ Let's dig into his trades to see how he lost money and what lessons we can learn.

7/ Hidden truth: the trader wasn’t unlucky This wasn’t bad luck. This wallet had: Negative payoff asymmetry No defined max loss per position No edge in efficient markets No probability discipline Loss was inevitable.

8/ How to avoid repeating this mistake (practical rules) Rule 1: Avoid high-price entries Be extremely cautious above 0.55 Especially avoid 0.65+ unless you have strong informational edge Rule 2: Cap single-event risk Max 3–5% of total capital per event One outcome should never decide your account Rule 3: Trade price movement, not just resolution Take partial profits Cut losses when probability collapses Don’t wait for “yes or zero” Rule 4: Track win rate vs break-even rate If your win rate < break-even → stop and reassess Volume won’t fix a negative expectancy Rule 5: Kill losing markets early Persistent underperformance = no edge Remove those markets entirely