1 月 5 日，据 Lookonchain 监测，交易员「beachboy4」在短短 35 天内在 Polymarket 上损失了超过 200 万美元。通过分析其交易记录，该交易员依赖自己的「共识认知」，即仅靠大多数人认为的大概率事件走向进行预测。
据统计，其在 35 天内共参与 53 次预测，胜率虽然高达 51%，但其对参与的预测从不设置退出策略，也不设置对冲策略，导致其「大多数亏损头寸都被持有到归零，或者价格在结算前很久就已经暴跌。」

<div><p>1 月 5 日，据 Lookonchain 监测，交易员「beachboy4」在短短 35 天内在 Polymarket 上损失了超过 200 万美元。通过分析其交易记录，该交易员依赖自己的「共识认知」，即仅靠大多数人认为的大概率事件走向进行预测。</p><p>据统计，其在 35 天内共参与 53 次预测，胜率虽然高达 51%，<strong>但其对参与的预测从不设置退出策略，也不设置对冲策略，导致其「大多数亏损头寸都被持有到归零，或者价格在结算前很久就已经暴跌。」</strong></p></div>

某交易员仅靠「共识认知」参与预测，35天亏损超200万美元

On January 5th, according to Lookonchain monitoring, trader "beachboy4" lost over $2 million on Polymarket in just 35 days. Analysis of his trading records revealed that this trader relied on his own "consensus perception," making predictions solely based on what most people considered high-probability events.

Statistics show that he participated in 53 predictions over 35 days, achieving a 51% win rate. However, he never implemented exit strategies or hedging strategies for his predictions, resulting in "most of his losing positions being held until they reached zero, or the price plummeting long before settlement."

<div><p>On January 5th, according to Lookonchain monitoring, trader &quot;beachboy4&quot; lost over $2 million on Polymarket in just 35 days. Analysis of his trading records revealed that this trader relied on his own &quot;consensus perception,&quot; that is, making predictions based solely on what most people considered high-probability events.</p><p> According to statistics, he participated in 53 predictions in 35 days, with a win rate as high as 51%. <strong>However, he never set an exit strategy or a hedging strategy for the predictions he participated in, which resulted in &quot;most of his losing positions being held until they went to zero, or the price plummeting long before settlement&quot;.</strong></p></div>

A trader lost over $2 million in 35 days by relying solely on "consensus knowledge" in making predictions.

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