A crypto OG told me it wouldn’t be surprising if Bitcoin crashed to $20k—I asked him why. Yesterday, I had a long chat with a real BTC veteran and heard some mind-blowing takes. I don’t 100% agree with everything, but his research is deep, so I’m sharing for discussion. Curious what you all think. This guy isn’t your usual lucky degen—he’s a sharp, next-level investor. He’s already sold over 80% of his BTC, holding just 20% now (basically pocket change for him). He gave two main reasons: 1. BTC has lost its most important feature: being a hedge against fiat. Now it’s just another USD asset. BTC was supposed to be anti-fiat, but now it’s basically been absorbed by Wall Street and the US dollar. No one wants to admit it, but it’s the reality. The US is pushing “America First”—USD and US Treasuries above all. BTC and crypto are just pieces in this bigger game. Whether it’s the FIT21 Act or CLARITY Act, or the US saying it’ll hold seized BTC as reserves, it all points to the US embracing BTC and blockchain. But this “support” is a double-edged sword. Sure, we’ve all seen the bullish side, but the downside is becoming obvious—BTC is losing its independence as a global anti-fiat asset. China and Russia aren’t buying BTC—they’re stacking gold. Only the US and its allies back BTC, but for them, BTC is just another risky USD asset. Even US states are mostly against holding BTC as a national reserve. He pointed out that on-chain data shows Wall Street (think MicroStrategy) is buying up BTC like crazy, but the more they buy, the less independent BTC becomes. The US is basically the biggest whale now—and that’s more negative than positive. With rising global geopolitical risk, even US allies like Denmark are dumping US Treasuries. The US is in a high-stakes financial war, and if they lose—US Treasuries collapse, USD credibility goes with it. In this context, fewer players want to bet on “America’s Bitcoin.” That’s why we keep seeing big money dumping BTC, and the selling is only getting more decisive. BTC’s biggest narrative—being anti-fiat—is gone. Now it’s just another USD asset. So even US bulls don’t need to touch BTC; US stocks have better liquidity and certainty. 2. Hashrate is migrating to AI. AI is a once-in-history event, 100x bigger and faster than the Industrial Revolution. Many mining farms can switch to data centers at any time, and right now, running data centers for AI is way more profitable than mining BTC—especially for US-listed miners. It’s a long-term, fat-margin play, so a lot of miners are pivoting. BTC hashrate dropped almost 20% in the past few months. Mining difficulty has adjusted down seven times—fewer miners, easier blocks. He said the latest-gen miners have a production cost of over $30k, but with hashrate dropping, that could go down to $20k+. And these miners still need to dump coins to fund their AI pivot. Historically, every mining capitulation has sent BTC below the “shutdown price”—so a drop to $20k wouldn’t be shocking. He asked me: “Who’s still bullish and buying BTC? MicroStrategy? They’re too deep to turn back—are they always right?” I had no answer. He continued: “ETH went from $800 to $3k, and that was just Tom Lee and Yi Lihua buying and shilling. Are they always right?” Again, I had no comeback. In the end, he said back in the day, geeks bought BTC because it was anti-fiat. Now it’s so tied to the dollar, it’s lost its edge. There are so many other good assets out there—BTC just isn’t sexy anymore. *** After the convo, I couldn’t stop thinking about it last night. Personally, I find it hard to believe BTC could drop to $20k again—hell, even $60k seems tough right now—but who’s to say black swan events are impossible? Would love to hear everyone’s thoughts.

One penguin at a time 🥹🐧 slowly but surely… next Penguin Awareness Day = full Waddle Army Congrats on the new lil

Nobody knows what tomorrow will bring. Let's just talk about it as things unfold.

It broke below 7. The statement was very clear: a clear bearish outlook.

You posted this AI-generated copy without even reading it aloud yourself?

That hits the nail on the head. As the US stock market has resolved efficiency and settlement opacities through tokenization, the competitive advantage that cryptocurrencies previously held is indeed being diluted. This is why we're analyzing the NYSE's entry into the market in depth. twitter.com/BiteyeCN/status/20...

She can just use one of these and make everything so much simpler

As long as the macroeconomic logic of continued inflation in fiat currency (M2) remains unchanged, BTC's attribute as a "global liquidity sponge" will remain unchanged. Historically, a decrease in hashrate and a reduction in difficulty have often been a bottoming signal of miner capitulation, rather than a prelude to a collapse.