🚨 SHUTDOWN RISK IS BACK ON THE MARKET The probability of a US government shutdown by January 31 is now close to 80% This risk is driven by political confrontation with no signs of compromise Plus the debt ceiling has already been raised to $41.1T This allows the conflict to drag on and increases the probability of a shutdown Why this really matters for crypto: > When a shutdown starts the US Treasury usually rebuilds the TGA > As is known this process directly drains liquidity from financial markets During the last shutdown the TGA increased by roughly $220B This liquidity outflow hit risk assets hard The market reaction was typical: 1) A short period of resilience 2) Tightening liquidity conditions 3) Selling of risk assets 4) $BTC and $ETH dropped by 20 to 25% 5) Altcoins dropped much harder The current market setup looks weaker BUT > Liquidity is already tight > Market confidence remains fragile On top of that crypto is already reacting sharply even to small capital flows A TGA rebuild during a shutdown could hit harder than last time That is why I recommend being prepared for the worst case scenario to avoid chasing FOMO later