How high will this gold bull market peak? Here's my assessment (combining historical patterns and current macroeconomic conditions): • Baseline Scenario (highest probability, 60%): The peak will fall in the $5500–$6200 range. It has already broken $5600, showing strong momentum, but the high volatility at the end of a bull market combined with profit-taking could easily lead to a 20–30% flash crash before continuing its upward surge (similar to the peak around 2011). If the dollar continues to weaken (Trump's policies + a dovish Fed), central banks continue buying gold, and geopolitical tensions/deficits worsen, it could easily surpass $6000. • Optimistic Scenario (30%): $6500–$7500+. If risk appetite collapses completely (Great Recession + renewed inflation + super-depreciation of the dollar), it could replicate the late 1970s surge. • Pessimistic/Peak Scenario (10%): It is already close to or has reached its peak ($5600–$5800). If the Fed unexpectedly turns hawkish, real interest rates rise sharply, and risk assets rebound, it could trigger a crash similar to the top seen in 1980/2011. In short: This bull market is not over yet, and the peak will most likely be around $6,000-$7,000 (the mainstream consensus leans towards $6,000+), but don't go all in and chase the highs. —Historical rule: There will always be a major correction at the end of a parabola. The difference is whether it continues to reach new highs after the correction or truly marks the top and the start of a bear market.

After gold broke through its historical high last time, it rose for two years before peaking. This time, it has risen for about 22 months since breaking through, which should be about the same.

However, this time it's too closely related to geopolitics, so the timing is hard to say.

yes.