Original article by Odaily Odaily( @OdailyChina )
Author｜Wenser ( @wenser2010 )
The size and trading volume of the prediction market are still growing rapidly. The pre-market IPOs of leading platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have also attracted considerable market attention and liquidity. According to data from the PreStocks platform, Kalshi's pre-market stock price has risen by 21.7% in the past 30 days , far exceeding the gains of mainstream cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH in the past month.
Before the IPO pie is even on the table, the pre-IPO sector may be a highly competitive arena for more people to participate in advance. This article from Odaily Odaily will analyze and predict whether the pre-market stock market is worth investing heavily in, from the perspectives of industry sectors, platform data, and capital valuation.
Behind the prediction that "the market still has 100 times the upside potential": Total trading volume to exceed $50 billion by 2025.
Last August, Nick Tomaino, founder of 1confirmation, made a bold statement predicting that market trading volume would increase 100 times .
At that time, Polymarket and Kalshi, the two giants of the prediction market, had not yet received more than $1 billion in funding, and their valuations were far from reaching $10 billion. The total trading volume of the prediction market in July was less than $2 billion, which was nearly halved compared to the historical high of more than $4 billion in October 2024. The prediction market's prediction potential of 100 times growth seemed like nonsense.
However, in October 2025, Polymarket announced that it had received a $2 billion investment from ICE Group, the parent company of the NYSE, which boosted its valuation to $9 billion. Subsequently, it sought a new round of financing of $12 billion to $15 billion. Kalshi, on the other hand, completed two rounds of financing between October and December, with the latest round reaching $1 billion and its valuation soaring to $11 billion. The round was led by Paradigm, with Sequoia, a16z, Meritech Capital, IVP, ARK Invest, Anthos Capital, CapitalG, and Y Combinator participating.
Behind the capital frenzy lies the booming and rapid development of the forecasting market.
According to data from our previous article , "2025 Forecast Market Review: Total Transaction Value Exceeds $50 Billion, Two Giants Hold Over 97.5% Market Share" :
- In September 2025, Kalshi and Polymarket's combined transaction volume reached $1.44 billion ;
- In October 2025, the market trading volume is projected to reach $8.7 billion , with Kalshi leading and Polymarket following.
- In November 2025, Kalshi and Polymarket's combined transaction volume approached $10 billion , with Kalshi's transaction volume reaching $5.8 billion, a 32% increase month-over-month, and Polymarket's transaction volume reaching $3.74 billion, a 23.8% increase month-over-month.
- In December 2025, analyst Patrick Scott wrote that the market trading volume was projected to exceed $13 billion in November 2025, more than three times the peak trading volume during the 2024 election.
Thus, in just a few months, the overall monthly trading volume of the market is predicted to have increased by about 6 times. In this light, a 100-fold increase is not out of reach.
After all, 100 times $2 billion is still only $200 billion, which is only a fourfold increase compared to the total trading volume of the prediction market, which is projected to exceed $50 billion by 2025. Behind this rapid growth is the meteoric rise of Kalshi, a compliant US prediction market platform.
Kalshi is poised to become the "prediction market leader": trading volume is projected to reach nearly $24 billion in 2025, with January trading volume expected to reach $9 billion.
The reason for emphasizing Kalshi's "compliant status in the US market" is that, based on its various licenses and compliance preparations, the door to an IPO is easier for Kalshi to open. Furthermore, as a pioneer in prediction market platforms founded in 2018 (Odaily Odaily note: the platform officially launched in July 2021, slightly later than Polymarket) , Kalshi's business growth in recent years has been extremely impressive.
Kalshi's 2025 performance: $23.8 billion in trading volume and 97 million transactions.
KalshiData previously stated that Kalshi achieved record growth across all metrics in 2025.
- In terms of nominal transaction volume, the total for the year reached US$23.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1,108%, or approximately 12.1 times. Among them, December set a new monthly record high of US$6.38 billion, the fourth week of December set a new weekly record high of US$1.7 billion, and December 21 set a new daily record high of US$381.7 million.
- In terms of transaction volume, the total reached 97 million transactions for the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 1680%, or approximately 17.8 times. Among them, the number of transactions in December was 27.67 million, the fourth week of December was 7.6 million, and December 21st was 1.5 million, all setting new historical records.
After 2026, Kalshi's business data growth was nothing short of terrifying.
Kalshi's business is booming: Nominal transaction volume is expected to exceed $9 billion in January 2026.
On December 16, 2025, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour announced that with the launch of the Combo feature, the platform's daily transaction volume reached a record high of $340 million.
On January 12, 2026, the forecast market's daily trading volume is expected to grow to approximately $702 million, a record high . Of this, Kalshi accounted for approximately $465 million , or about two-thirds of the total, while Polymarket and Opinion contributed a combined total of approximately $100 million in trading volume.
On January 26, KalshiData reported that as of January 23, Kalshi's monthly notional transaction volume was approximately $6.7 billion, with a daily average of approximately $293 million. If the current pace continues, Kalshi's notional transaction volume for January is expected to reach approximately $9.1 billion.
It's worth noting that last October, the overall trading volume of the prediction market was $8.7 billion, with Kalshi holding a market share of approximately 45%-55% . Now, the monthly trading volume of Kalshi alone exceeds the total market capitalization at that time. This reflects both the booming period of the prediction market as a whole and the astonishing growth rate of Kalshi's business.
According to data from the KalshiData website, as of January 29, Kalshi's total historical trading volume exceeded $34.05 billion, with an average daily trading volume of over $20.48 million; and looking at its nominal trading volume chart, it has been growing almost exponentially since September 2025.
Capital market pricing range: Kalshi's share price is $300-$450.
Finally, as the current leading prediction market platform, although the specific timing and number of shares to be issued for Kalshi's IPO are still uncertain, based on previous financing news and public statements, the IPO is a certainty. Currently, there is considerable disagreement between the traditional financial market and the cryptocurrency market regarding the pre-market pricing of the two stocks:
Kalshi's stock was priced relatively low in the pre-market trading of traditional financial markets.
- On the Nasdaq Private Market, Kalshi's stock is priced at around $307 per share.
- On Hiive, Kalshi's stock is priced at around $357 per share.
The pre-market pricing for Kalshi's stock in the cryptocurrency market was relatively high.
- On PreStocks , Kalshi's implied market capitalization is approximately $14 billion, with a share price of approximately $407.
- On Jarsy , Kalshi has a market valuation of $11 billion and a standalone price of $450.
In the next article, Odaily Odaily will provide a detailed analysis of the price range within which Kalshi stock is worth buying in the pre-market, dissecting investment opportunities in the stock market from a pre-market perspective.
