[Big Speculation: "Little Bear Bottom"] Everyone's become increasingly adept at identifying bear market bottoms in cryptocurrency prices, but currently, the market seems to lack a certain perspective: if the current bull market peak didn't reach the historically anticipated level, will the bear market bottom also fall to that level? I happen to have a price model based on the #BTC:MVRV indicator difference. This model uses the cumulative arithmetic mean and cumulative standard deviation to statistically standardize MVRV, employing five lines to comprehensively encompass Bitcoin's historical price movements. Historically, in a normal bear-to-bull and back-to-bear cycle, the price typically rises from Line 1 to Line 5 and then falls back to Line 1 (taking approximately 4 years). The 2019 "mini bull market" was an exception, with the price rising from Line 1 to Line 4 and then falling to Line 2. The current bull market is similar, with the price also rising from Line 1 to Line 4 and then falling back to Line 2 (currently at Line 2 price of $75,268). Therefore, I propose a bold conjecture: since the current bull market peak didn't reach the historically expected high (Line 5), the bear market trough won't reach the historically expected depth (Line 1). Perhaps this bull market is just an extended "mini bull"? Perhaps 74k is the "mini bear bottom"? Everything will be answered by time and the cycle.

This time I really agree!

Ohh🤜🤛

This time I completely agree. My view, starting from macro liquidity, is that we've experienced a lean bull market, and what follows might be a bloated bear market. The indicators I focus on might be different; I look at MRVR (Mean Monetary Revenue Ratio). It hasn't reached the upper trend line, just a little short, which is likely due to insufficient liquidity. Even on the downside, it might still be slightly higher than the lower trend line because the overall trend in 2026 is towards easing. However, I predict that we'll consolidate at the bottom for a while, followed by a second test to confirm the bottom. Although the four-year cycle is becoming increasingly blurred, it still has a significant impact, and a drop like this will always require time to recover.

We have the same logic, but different perspectives, yet the same conclusion, haha.

🦾🦾🤜🤛