CryptoChan

CryptoChan

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#Bitcoin on-chain & cycle analysis，比特币链上行情分析 || 不拉群不带单不收费 || TG频道: https://t.co/Q1ZKhF2mx9 || 内容纯分析交流，无任何投资建议

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【Four-Year Cycle Total Series (30)】 When the indicator below the chart is higher than 1.5, it corresponds to a complete bear market bottoming range in Bitcoin's history The current value of this indicator is 1.24 ┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐ The black line at the top of the chart is the #BTC price; the indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of "Bitcoin long-term holder spending price" to "Bitcoin short-term holder spending price" Note: Spending price refers to the average purchase price of Bitcoin sold by holders over a period of time (7 days in the chart) twitter.com/0xCryptoChan/statu...

【Four-Year Cycle Series Update📊】 The difference between the indicator peak in June 2015 and the indicator peak in March 2019 is 1385 days. The difference between the indicator peak in March 2019 and the indicator peak in January 2023 is 1380 days. The indicator peak in January 2023 is now 1180 days old. Note: The indicator peaks at the bottom of the chart roughly correspond to the end of the #BTC bear market and the beginning of the bull market in terms of time. twitter.com/0xCryptoChan/statu...

【Four-Year Cycle Series (29)】 2014 #BTC accumulated 22 days underwater to the bear market bottom 2018 #BTC accumulated 26 days underwater to the bear market bottom 2022 #BTC accumulated 26 days underwater to the secondary bear market bottom ($17.6k) This round has so far seen #BTC accumulated 40 days underwater ┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐ The black line in the chart represents the market capitalization of Bitcoin; the blue line represents the market capitalization of Bitcoin long-term holders' holdings (365d-MA). A black line below the blue line is defined as BTC being underwater. twitter.com/0xCryptoChan/statu...

【Four-Year Cycle Series (28)】 In 2014, the orange line death cross below the purple line, and the bear market bottomed out 101 days later. The bear market bottomed out 130 days after the orange line death cross the purple line in 2018. The bear market bottomed out 183 days after the orange line death cross the purple line in 2022. The orange line death cross the purple line in 2026, and 40 days have passed since then. ┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐ In the chart, the black line represents the price of #BTC; the orange line represents the Bitcoin equilibrium price (Balanced Price); and the purple line represents the average purchase cost for long-term Bitcoin holders. Note: Balanced Price = Realized Price - Transferred Price Simply put, this metric measures the "realized cost in the market minus the historical value actually spent/transferred," essentially attempting to identify the bottom area of Bitcoin's "fair valuation." twitter.com/0xCryptoChan/statu...

【Four-Year Cycle Series (27)】 2014 #BTC underwater for a cumulative 124 days to the bear market bottom 2018 #BTC underwater for a cumulative 166 days to the bear market bottom 2022 #BTC underwater for a cumulative 191 days to the bear market bottom This round has so far seen #BTC underwater for a cumulative total of approximately 52 days ┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐ The gray line in the chart represents the Bitcoin price The green line in the chart represents the Bitcoin long-term holder's spending price, which is the average purchase cost of Bitcoin long-term holders selling their chips over a period of time (e.g., 7 days) When the gray line is lower than the green line, it is defined as BTC underwater twitter.com/0xCryptoChan/statu...

[Four-Year Cycle Series Update📊] Historically, before and after the final drop in each #BTC bear market, the black line has successively crossed below the orange, blue, and green lines. Currently, the black line has crossed below the orange line, and it's still $1,542 away from crossing the blue line. twitter.com/0xCryptoChan/statu...

At the end of a bear market's bottoming-out phase often comes a devastating "sacrifice." The final panic selling in the market is essentially the complete collapse of the bulls' last psychological defenses. That seemingly devastating "final drop" is actually a complete clearing and reorganization of chips from "old hands" to "new hands." The on-chain indicator VDD Multiple is a precise "microscope" for capturing this brutal process. ┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐ Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple is an advanced indicator evolved from "Coin Days Destroyed." • Core Logic: It measures the activity level of "old coins." When long-term holders (LTH) panic and choose to sell their tokens, a large amount of long-dormant "coin days" will be destroyed. • Counterintuitive phenomenon at the bottom of a bear market: During the bottoming phase at the end of a bear market, although the price is experiencing a desperate "final drop," VDD Multiple often experiences a violent surge. • The truth behind it: This violent upward surge corresponds to the transfer of "ancient tokens" buried deep underground due to panic. When even the most steadfast holders begin to "cut their losses" or liquidate their positions, the market's floating tokens are truly cleansed. The darkest hour is before dawn, and this final drop is the last hurdle before dawn. The impulsive upward movement of VDD Multiple is often the ultimate signal that the market has bottomed out and the tokens have completed a cross-generational transfer.

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