
                                    <div>
                                      <h3>Market View</h3>
                                      <p>Bearish on the market, expecting a bear market soon</p>
                                      <h3>Trading Strategy</h3>
                                      <p>Cleared all spot positions, cut losses on short, holding cash flow to bottom-fish new coins on the losers list</p>
                                      <h3>Core Logic</h3>
                                      <p><ol>
    <li>
History repeats itself
    </li>
    <li>
extreme FOMO leads to a bear market, decisive clearing after stop-loss, sufficient cash flow for bottom entry, correct bear market prediction and seizing short opportunities on new coins
    </li>
</ol></p>
                                    </div>
                                    

历史总是惊人的相似
写于1011
（明确指出我看熊市要来的理由，以及1011之前清仓的原因）
XPL空单损失4万U给我带来了什么。
0.7均价空→0.8损→拉到1.5→现价0.1
①XPL让我看到了24年我做空ena亏损的剧本，
市场情绪fomo到极致，随后迎来熊市，
当时我持有现货亏损不少，
所以XPL止损后我果断清仓了全部现货，
（无马后炮，文章举例提过，我1000清仓了BNB后拉到1200）
②手里没任何仓位，有足够的现金流来抄底1011
（至少证明我认识bnsol beth这两个币是什么 以及他来到跌幅榜及时抄底）
③对市场走熊的正确判断，抓住了后续MON等新币大卡车做空机会。

我觉得抄底成功主要是两个经验吧。
并且都是我曾经吃亏买单的经验
1.XPL之后我觉得 熊市要来 所以我清仓了全部现货
也让我这次有足够的现金流去抄底现货
（因为每次新币大卡车我亏钱的时候都会来熊市 甚至XPL我当时知道可能要翻倍 因为像极了当时我做空ENA）

风寻

Twitter

History really does repeat itself.

Written on 10/11  
(Here’s exactly why I’m bearish and why I went all out before 10/11)

What did losing $40k on my XPL short teach me?  
Shorted XPL at 0.7 avg → Stopped out at 0.8 → Pumped to 1.5 → Now at 0.1

1) XPL was déjà vu of my ENA short loss in ‘24.  
Market FOMO peaked, then the bear market hit.  
I was left bagholding spot and got rekt.  
So after stopping out on XPL, I instantly nuked all my spot.  
(No cap, I wrote about selling BNB at $1000 before it pumped to $1200.)

2) Flat, no bags, max dry powder to buy the dip on 10/11.  
(At least I know what bSOL and BETH are and caught the dip as soon as they hit the losers list.)

3) Nailed the bear call, caught the next big short opportunities on new coins like MON and rode the dump truck.

Bitcoin's price briefly touched $60,000 last week. Under a diminishing returns model, this is no mere noise. The market is touching the weakest link in the entire four-year cycle and logarithmic growth framework.

With the gains at the top of the Bitcoin cycle already significantly compressed, a further historically deep correction would completely negate the allure of its classic cycles.

This is not a prediction; it's a mathematical law.

Cycle Top Gains are Compressing

Historical Bitcoin Cycle Tops:

· 2013: ~$1,242

· 2017: ~$19,700

· 2021: ~...

$55,000 will be the lifeline for Bitcoin.

The government has just issued Resolution No. 23/NQ-CP following the regular government meeting in January 2026, which emphasizes the requirement for proactive, flexible, and effective monetary policy management, with close coordination...

The Vietnamese government is pushing for the operation of a gold and cryptocurrency exchange by February 28, 2026.

The crypto market experienced a sharp drop this afternoon, with Ethereum falling below the $2,000 mark at 3 PM Taiwan time, according to Hyperliquid [...]
The article, titled "Machi Big Brother Suffers Huge Losses and Didn't Sleep All Night? Ethereum Falls Below 2000 Magnesium, Panic Arrives, Opens Long BlockTempo and Loses 120,000 Magnesium," was originally published on BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain ABMedia media.

Machi Big Brother lost so much money he couldn't sleep all night? Ethereum fell below 2000, causing panic. He long positions in ETH and HYPE, then sold at a loss, losing all 120,000 in magnesium.