According to Odaily Odaily, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan published a lengthy article on the X platform stating that the market has been in a Crypto Winter since January 2025, and it may be nearing its end. Bitcoin has fallen 39% from its all-time high in October 2025, and Ethereum has fallen 53%. This is a full-blown Crypto Winter triggered by factors such as excessive leverage and profit-taking by OG. Crypto winters typically last about 13 months. For example, Bitcoin peaked in December 2017 and bottomed out in December 2018; subsequently, it peaked again in October 2021 and bottomed out in November 2022.
He believes the current "winter" began in January 2025, but this fact has been masked by inflows into ETFs and digital asset vaults (DATs). He analyzes assets by dividing them into three groups:
1. The first group (BTC, ETH, XRP) only fell by 10.3% to 19.9% due to strong support from ETFs/DAT.
2. The second group (SOL, LTC, LINK) was approved as an ETF during 2025, falling 36.9% to 46.2%.
3. The third group (ADA, AVAX, SUI, DOT) did not receive ETF support and fell by 61.9% to 74.7%.
Data shows that during this period, ETFs and DATs purchased a total of 744,417 bitcoins, worth approximately $75 billion. Without this funding, the retail market has been in a brutal winter since January 2025.
Finally, he stated that positive news is often overlooked during a bear market, but it accumulates as potential energy. This energy could be released strongly when market sentiment normalizes, and a robust market rebound is expected soon. Subsequent positive factors depend on strong economic growth driving a rise in risk appetite, the CLARITY Act, and sovereign nations' acceptance of Bitcoin; it may simply be a matter of time.
