I used AI to calculate the expected value of making money in a poly casino. The formula is: [Expected Value = Win Rate × Profit Amount − Loss Rate × Loss Amount]. Key factors for long-term profitability: - Win Rate > 66.67% - Win Rate > 42.86% (i.e., a win could earn 1.5x) This makes it possible to consistently make money in the prediction market, but there's still a 28% probability of losing everything and leaving early. Below these two thresholds, the AI concludes that you'll lose everything and leave. Methods to improve expected value: - Increase win rate (fewer bets, but be confident in your bets) - Increase profit/loss ratio (unless you have a 100% win rate, aim for at least a 50% profit on each bet before leaving; otherwise, the expected value will be a long-term loss) - Reduce losses (stop-loss immediately if unsure; reducing losses effectively increases expected value). The prediction market is even more brutal than secondary markets 👀. Most people don't even think to calculate these factors before entering the game. Many people only want to make pocket money, but it can actually be a money-making machine.