Bitcoin collapses below $64,000, shaking the "bottom-out" theory as selling pressure reaches its peak.
Bitcoin (BTC) has plunged more than 13% over the past four days, falling below $64,000 (approximately 93.95 million won). Markets are warning that a bottom has not yet been formed, given the historical level of selling. In particular, the collapse of the previous high of $69,000 (approximately 101.28 million won) has raised concerns about a potential further decline, as it represents a breach of psychological support.
Bitcoin is currently trading below $69,000, the peak of its 2021 bull market. This level is typically considered a "support zone," but recent selling pressure has pushed it down sharply. Over the past week, Bitcoin futures open interest has decreased by more than $10 billion (approximately KRW 14.68 trillion), indicating rapid leverage liquidation.
Technical indicators indicate "oversold" but further downside remains.
Market analysts assess that the current downtrend is following a pattern similar to past cycles. In the previous cycle, Bitcoin rebounded from its 2017 high of $19,600, but then temporarily fell to $16,000. This temporary decline below the previous high while testing the previous low is a recurring phenomenon.
André Dragoche, Head of European Research at Bitwise, explained, "The $58,000-$69,000 range has seen overwhelming volume, and this range overlaps with the 200-week moving average. This represents a key support area where strong demand is likely to flow in." Indeed, some traders are noting the influx of large buy orders in the $65,000-$68,000 range, indicating the possibility of a short-term rebound.
Investor sentiment is in a state of surrender, but interpretations of the reversal signal are mixed.
Technical indicators also suggest that the current situation is under excessive downward pressure. Market analyst Subu Trade noted that Bitcoin's weekly RSI (Relative Strength Index) has fallen below 30. Given that past similar levels have seen an average 16% rebound, he believes a short-term rebound from the low is possible.
Another analyst, MorenoDV, emphasized that the adjusted net unrealized profit/loss (aNUPL) indicator turned negative for the first time since 2023. This indicates that average investors are entering a loss zone, and he explained that similar situations in the past have also led to price recoveries. However, he added, "The current pace of sentiment decline is faster than in any previous cycle," and "rather than a gentle decline, a sharp 'emotional reset' is occurring."
Bitcoin isn't bottoming yet... but there's room for a rebound.
Ultimately, Bitcoin remains unable to find a bottom amidst the previous cycle's peak collapse, massive sell-off, and macroeconomic uncertainty. However, technical indicators indicate oversold conditions, and buying pressure is flowing in around the $58,000-$69,000 range, suggesting a short-term rebound is possible. Even within this recurring cycle, fluctuations in market sentiment are acting as new variables, so further observation is needed to determine whether a trend reversal will occur.
💡 "The Bottom of Fear: Opportunity? Or Danger? The Answer Lies in the Data"
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🔎 Market Interpretation
Bitcoin has fallen by approximately 13% over the past four days, reaching $63,844, falling below its 2021 high of $69,000. This decline is attributed to record liquidations and leverage resets, including a loss of over $10 billion in open interest in the futures market.
Considering that the previous bull market peak served as support for the bear market, this decline could be part of a cyclical correction. However, some analysts suggest that the key demand area of $58,000-$69,000 could serve as strong support.
💡 Strategy Points
- $58K~$69K: Key demand zone where cumulative volume and the 200-week moving average overlap.
- Consider buying at the bottom when oversold signals are detected, such as RSI falling below 30 or aNUPL turning negative.
- While the rebound is not yet clear, a rapid emotional reset also suggests the possibility of a short-term rebound.
📘 Glossary
▫️ RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical indicator that determines whether an asset is overbought or oversold. If it is below 30, it is considered oversold.
▫️ aNUPL (Adjusted Net Realized Profit/Loss): This indicates the average profit/loss status of investors. A negative number means that most investors are in a loss position.
▫️ 200-week moving average: A long-term technical support line used as a baseline to determine turning points in major cycles.
💡 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q.
Is this Bitcoin drop a short-term correction or the start of a bear market?
The current market is experiencing both a sharp sell-off and oversold signals. While the RSI and aNUPL indicators are showing trends similar to past rebounds, a clear uptrend has not yet been observed. Therefore, while a short-term rebound is possible, the possibility of further declines cannot be ruled out.
Q.
Why did Tether invest $100 million in Anchorage Digital?
Tether has been a partner supporting Anchorage Digital's regulatory-compliant stablecoin issuance in the United States, and this investment expands their existing partnership into a strategic investment. Through this investment, Tether aims to strengthen its institutional infrastructure and participate in Anchorage's growth as it prepares for its upcoming IPO.
Q.
Why is the 200-week moving average important?
The 200-week moving average is a key technical indicator for identifying long-term trends. In past Bitcoin cycles, rebounds occurred when the indicator approached this level, and this time, the 200-week moving average near $58,000 could serve as strong support. Therefore, this level could serve as an important buying signal for mid- to long-term investors.
TP AI Precautions
This article was summarized using a TokenPost.ai-based language model. Key points in the text may be omitted or inaccurate.
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